Kerry won't make the same mistakes in final replay

A quirk of scheduling gives us three provincial finals this weekend. Throw in the fascinating meeting of Tipperary and Tyrone in Thurles, Derry in Salthill to meet Galway and the weather forecast means the television certainly beckons.

Saturday’s top billing is Cork and Kerry back in Killarney and this could be the tastiest fixture of the lot. While the rest of the country experiment with blanket defences, these two both tend to play football when they can, so we will thankfully see an open contest.

The case for the Kingdom is stronger. They have a terrific record in replays. The same is true of Kilkenny’s hurlers, the logic being you only get one chance to beat such counties. The defending champions will have been hearing all about the drawn match and how lucky they were to get a second chance, the penalty and all that. That chatter will rankle.

A more studied view of the last 10 minutes of the first encounter, however, shows that Cork were probably the fortunate ones. The game had slipped away from them before Barry O’Driscoll’s late goal put them a point ahead. In the furore about the penalty and the marvelling at Fionn Fitzgerald’s equalising point, it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Rebels were two points behind and their attack was clearly floundering. That goal was a very poor one for Kerry to concede; it came after the ball had been moved sideways and backwards before the Kingdom defence inexplicably parted.

That will have been discussed at length at Kerry training since and the fact that Colm Cooper couldn’t make the original starting 15 will also have concentrated minds. Manager Éamonn Fitzmaurice has the ruthless streak necessary for this job. There will be a few more surprises come Saturday night, with even Marc Ó Sé under pressure to retain the No 3 jersey.

So, there is more in Kerry. But what of Cork? Will they be sated with putting it up to the old enemy in their own backyard once? They certainly answered their critics with their performance at the start of the second half two weeks ago, but really it is themselves they should be answering. Whether Tomás Ó Sé or Joe Brolly don’t fancy their stomach for battle should be irrelevant. You only have to look your teammates in the eye for that gut-check. They have to tear into Kerry from the start on Saturday and drag them into a game that Kerry don’t like, one that has plenty of structure and the odd bit of stop-start.

Do that and Cork can retain enough energy for the last 15. Those are the championship minutes. They do have scoring power to stay with the champions, but I think defensively they are going to struggle with a Kerry team that will definitely improve. Having fancied the underdogs to catch the All-Ireland champions on the hop, I have done a U-turn. Never go against the Kingdom in a replay.

Mayo v Sligo

The other two provincial finals have the potential to be one-sided and short on entertainment. Mayo are surely far too everything for Sligo to have a sniff at the Hyde. The perennial Connacht champions and Sam contenders can look flat themselves now and again, but in recent years their home province has provided few problems.

In their semi-final win they were able to bring on Alan Dillon, Barry Moran, Donal Vaughan and Alan Freeman. Add that to a starting side that already contains the two O’Sheas, Lee Keegan, Keith Higgins, Tom Parsons, Andy Moran and the scoring machine Cillian O’Connor and it isn’t hard to see why they are in the September mix.

That Sligo are in the July equation is thanks to the bravery of their semi-final win. Players like debutante Cian Brehony and forwards David Kelly and Andy Marren certainly took responsibility for the ball. However, the form of Sligo’s stirring win over a vaunted Roscommon hasn’t really worked out, while Galway have shown something since being put to the Mayo sword. There will be bigger days and far bigger opponents ahead for the green and red. They may well find Sligo to be sticky opponents, but it can only be Mayo on Sunday.

Donegal v Monaghan

Donegal and Monaghan in Clones is becoming a regular Ulster final, this being the third successive time they’ve met in St Tiernach’s Park. This is Donegal’s fifth consecutive appearance in the final, something they only managed once before, between 1989-1993. Back then, they harvested two Ulster titles and one All-Ireland final. This side will probably annex their fourth Anglo-Celt in five years on Sunday and they’d be my favourites to add to the All-Ireland they won in 2012. We know how good they are. We know their defence is beyond blanket (more of the all-encompassing quilt variety). No team breaks from defence to attack with more urgency than Donegal, who look to have lost little since Jim McGuinness’s departure.

Monaghan bring plenty to the table too, not to mention the relatively fresh memory of beating much of the same team in this match two years ago. But Donegal have hit their speed bump already in Ulster, when they fell over the line against Derry by two points. They’ll cope with Monaghan.

Qualifiers

The qualifiers have begun to get interesting. Mickey Harte visits Thurles for the first time in a footballing capacity on Saturday and the reward for the winners will be a game against Monaghan or Sligo. Both Tipp and Tyrone will quietly fancy a day in Croke Park if they can manage Saturday.

The qualifiers were invented for ties like this. The hunch is Tyrone will be that little bit cuter than the Premier, but the same Ulster know-how will hardly apply in Pearse Stadium, where Galway are the blue bloods and should have enough to see off Derry. The Tribesmen are another side gathering back-door momentum. Themselves and Tyrone will see Croke Park in August anyway.