The next two weekends will go a long way to deciding whether our provinces have good, bad or indifferent seasons in Europe. For Leinster, the prize for winning this weekend is to seize control of the group by beating the only other unbeaten side in their pool, an Exeter side still feeling their way in the senior European competition. Do that and a week later they can almost put the group to bed in Dublin.

Ulster need to win in London when they visit Harlequins, putting themselves back into the picture after their loss to table-toppers La Rochelle. In their favour is the likelihood that Quins have already written off their European adventure having lost their first two outings.

Munster v Leicester

Munster have the best of the draws, as their first leg is at home – a huge advantage in these double fixtures. Win the first of the back-to-backs and you are not in the last-chance saloon in week two. While Munster appear to have a head start on Ulster and Leinster, who must travel, they do have the might of Leicester coming to Thomond Park. This English side are one of the very few to have won in European competition on this ground in the modern era and they have done it twice to boot, memorably back in 2007 and two years ago when comprehensively outplaying the home side 31-19.

There are many of the same personnel on duty this Saturday and for Ian Keatley, who had a match to forget that day, redemption beckons. So, too, does a raucous atmosphere, as the 7.45pm kickoff guarantees.

Limerick wasn’t the same place two years ago as the season of frustration and transition was endured by then coach Anthony Foley. Much has changed and, Munster being Munster, they will be keen to remind their visitors of that fact.

After the November internationals, the health of the first 20 of the squad is crucial and it looks like new coach Johann van Graan has close to a full deck from which to choose. Long-term absentees Tyler Bleyendaal and Keith Earls are compensated for by the form of Ian Keatley and the November revelations Andrew Conway and Chris Farrell. Both have more than stood up; if both can stay fit, then the return of the missing pair will really add to options after Christmas.

Simon Zebo looks like he is winning his fitness battle after a bruised rib and he must have something to prove too now that he is back on the bigger stage. But in truth Munster will go as Conor Murray and their back row goes. This is where the battle will be waged. Leicester are no mugs and like any team with ambition in Thomond Park, they will look to target Murray, CJ Stander, Peter O’Mahony and Tommy O’Donnell.

While many of course have tried, the English side do have the tools and in scrum-half Ben Youngs they have a player who enjoys taking on the best nine in the world, with some success in the past. We can hardly remember the last time Murray was outplayed at the base of the scrum; he will need to prove once again on Saturday why he is considered the world’s best.

Should Murray more than break even, then the game is here for Munster. And what a game it will be. The lights on? A full house? Baying for English blood? Munster with the scent in their nostrils? That’s my kind of match. I’ll be in Thomond because I have a fondness for old times. Munster to win.

Exeter v Leinster

Sunday evening sees Leinster visit Sandy Park and a tricky encounter with Exeter. The English side are a throwback in that they are not a squad brimming with superstars, Lions or All Blacks. What they lack in international caps they make up for in honesty and effort. They are also the clear frontrunners in the English Premiership – their main target for the season. They have the likes of Saracens, Wasps, Bath and Leicester in their wake. Any team getting the better of them will earn it and for all of Leinster’s undoubted class, it will take an amount of graft to go to this corner of Brexit-land and emerge with a win.

A bonus-point loss is not the worst result for the visitors as they have the same opposition back in the Aviva a week later, where a win would retake control of their pool destiny. A win of course would settle matters but this tie is perhaps the toughest ask for the Irish provinces this weekend.

Leo Cullen has an array of talent to pick from but selection on Sunday demands equal blend of warrior and wizard. He will struggle to get it right. Leinster’s front row might give them an edge but the Exeter pack are the sum of their parts. A point would be a decent result.

Harlequins v Ulster

For Ulster, there is a make-or-break air to this weekend because if they lose they are once more doomed to also-ran status in Europe before Christmas. They have to win and while Harlequins are eminently beatable, they warmed up for this by beating Saracens at the same Stoop last weekend.

Les Kiss has been with the province for three years now and it is fair to say he hasn’t had his share of luck in the role – yet. Shorn of important players for a variety of reasons, things just might be turning around. To make the playoffs in this tournament you need world-class in units – the more the merrier. Leinster have it both in the scrum and behind it; Munster have it from six to nine and in ones and twos elsewhere; Ulster are starting to put it together.

Their back three now has that look about it, if Kiss looks to put Jacob Stockdale in there with Charles Piutau and/or Tommy Bowe and Andrew Trimble. That’s a counter-attacking threat that would limit opponents kicking to them and offer plenty in attack. Set them free and Ulster can go places. They must start with a win early on Sunday; the five-pointer would go a long way to restoring legitimate ambitions for the quarter-finals – a place they haven’t been in four years.

Brive v Connacht

Connacht travel to Brive sitting on top of their Challenge Cup pool. Unlike the other provinces, their playing resources don’t currently stretch to be being competitive for playoff places in both PRO12 and Europe and it appears the eggs are in the continental basket. With Bundee Aki back in harness, they can once again go to France and frighten the locals.

So, what’s on the cards? Well, a pair of Irish wins this weekend would be acceptable, trips a bonus, but a poker is a long shot. Openers in Thomond would do for a start. CL