The current price of beef in Argentina is low enough to compete in the UK with the proposed “no-deal” tariffs. The majority of beef-exporting countries cannot compete with domestic UK prices after tariffs have been applied. However, the Argentinian price at just under £2/kg for prime beef can withstand the Government’s proposed no-deal tariff regime.

The UK Government is proposing to half the tariffs to get beef into the UK if they leave the EU without a deal. This means that beef coming into the UK without an agreement or a reduced tariff rate quota would be charged 6.8% and €0.93/kg for beef carcases and half carcases.

Fresh boneless cuts of beef will also be charged at 6.8%, with €1.60/kg added on too. This is enough to put off the majority of imports. However, Argentinian beef could still be attracted by UK markets, particularly high-value steak cuts.

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Looking across the world and comparing beef prices with Britain at current levels, prices in Ireland, the US and Australia are 10-15% cheaper. Meanwhile, beef from Argentina and Brazil is somewhere between a third and a half cheaper on a per-kilo basis.

Adding the proposed beef tariff rates to beef exporting countries’ prices with an additional 5% processing cost makes the majority unable to compete in the UK market. Irish, US and Australian prime beef is over 30% more expensive than the GB average. While Brazil is around 11.8% above the British price for cow beef and 3.6% over for the prime beef price, much of their beef is from Zebu cross cattle which may not fit UK requirements.

Argentina comes out competitive for both cow beef at 3% less and prime 4.8% less than the Scottish price.

These figures look at the carcase price for beef coming into the UK but it is likely to be imported as boneless cuts. If boneless cuts average around twice the farmgate price, then the set amount of €1.60/kg added to every shipment has a smaller impact on putting exporters off the UK market. Despite the smaller impact of the tariffs, most exporting countries like Ireland, Australia and the US are still not competitive.

However, Argentina and Brazil would be priced at 23% and 15% less than the current Scottish beef price after all tariffs were added.

This means that exporting beef countries are all looking to gain access to the UK through the proposed tariff rate quota which is to be set at zero. The proposed TRQ for fresh beef amounts to approximately 124,400t of fresh beef, the proposed TRQ for frozen beef amounts to around 56,200t, and the proposed TRQ for processed beef amounts to about 50,000t. This beef can enter the UK from any country which has production systems and meat processing sanctioned by the UK. The rate is allocated on a first-come-first-served basis, with different amounts for each quarter of the year.

Quality Meat Scotland Economics department helped provide figures for this article.