Despite price drops for cheese and powders, there was more positivity in the dairy market this week. A significant factor in this is the price rise for butter of €120/t, coming as it does at a time when there will be increased butter stocks on the market due to the spring flush of milk across Europe. The futures market for almost all categories increased this week and there seems to be a more bullish outlook than in recent weeks.

Part of the reason for this could be negative milk volume statistics coming out from Germany. Official figures show that milk supplies in February were back 3.1% on the same month last year after adjusting for the leap year. Overall milk supplies for January and February are back 4.2% compared to 2024. As the largest dairy producer in the EU, what happens in Germany is significant so this could be spooking the market into thinking that dairy is going to be scarce in Europe in 2025.

That may be so, but it didn’t stop prices falling in Europe this week. Whole milk powder (WMP) fell by €70/t to €4,270/t while skim milk powder (SMP) fell by €25 to €2,340/t. At these prices, SMP is at the lowest level since the early weeks of 2024. Cheese prices also fell, falling by €65/t to €4,760/t.

Globally, its interesting to note that Chinese dairy imports have increased significantly over the last two months, with March 2025 imports up over 22% compared with March 2024. The main product categories seeing the increase are WMP, infant formula, lactose and butter. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues as the year goes on.