An analysis of MartWatch price data for lambs sold in the period from May to the end of August over the last five years shows 2011 sales as having achieved the best trade. Since 2011, prices have ranged on average €5 to €10 lower across all animal classes.

Taking a quick look back to 2011 helps explain some of the reasons behind the stronger trade. Lamb supplies were tighter in spring and this, along with improved prices in EU markets, led to an excellent trade for hoggets and early-born spring lambs. While prices reduced as the year progressed and more lambs came on stream, factory prices remained 3% to 5% above previous years’ levels, which was reflected in a stronger mart trade.

Store lamb buyers who purchased at the end of 2010 and finished lambs at the start of 2011 were also rewarded and returned with high levels of confidence. Store lamb demand was also bolstered by favourable grass growth leading to surpluses on many farms, with earlier housing and tighter supplies of cattle also benefiting the trade and helping to keep a strong floor under price.

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The higher prices accelerated recovery in the national ewe flock, with the breeding ewe flock increasing from 2.2m to 2.35m head.

An increase of 200,000 extra hoggets carried over the winter included a high percentage of breeding ewe lambs, which led to further increases in the national flock in 2012 and 2013.

2014 trade

The trade from May to the end of August 2014 is not dissimilar to the same period in 2013. The average price for lambs in the 40kg to 50kg weight category is running €2 to €3 lower.

However, there are variances in prices, hidden by the average price, for the period from May to the middle of June. Factory lambs were running ahead of 2013 sale levels by an average of €3 to €4 per head throughout May and June, influenced primarily by a stronger factory trade. A weakening in the factory trade in July and August put pressure on slaughter-fit lambs, with prices running €3 to €4 behind last year’s level.

A strong store lamb trade throughout July helped keep a floor under the factory lamb trade with more farmers active at an earlier stage of the year. This is reflected in the average price of store lambs running €1 to €3 above last year. To date, store lamb sales have been relatively small, with sales only really starting to gain momentum. The trade for the remainder of the year is hard to accurately predict.

Traders who purchased lambs at the latter half of 2013 and traded ahead of the traditional Christmas market witnessed no great increase in factory prices. On the other hand, those who held lambs for longer and sold hoggets from March to April sold at significantly higher prices and should return with confidence to sales this back end.

Breeding sales

Similar to 2013, there is variability entering breeding sales. After a very strong start, sales held in the last week to 10 days have been more variable with a large differential opening up between top-quality hoggets and lesser-quality types.

Prices for top-quality hoggets in normal or specialised sales range from €150 to €185 per head, while lesser-quality types have been harder to trade and are selling from €130 to €145 per head.

Many mart managers report peak demand not yet reached, with buyers waiting until a higher percentage of lambs have been sold to fund purchases. Other mart managers have said that breeding sales in the last few years have received an end-of-season lift following the advance payment of the Single Farm Payment. Many agree that the trade for both cattle and sheep is being limited in some cases by cashflow problems caused by higher costs in the last two years and lower margins from beef and lambs sales.

Export interest helping ewe trade

Live export interest in the cull ewe trade has been a welcome source of competition with many mart managers reporting live export activity adding €5 to €10, or even greater, to the trade for large framed ewes. In many sales, large-framed, fleshed lowland ewes have been trading for €95 to €115 per head. Where export activity has been absent, prices in particular weeks have struggled to pass the €100 mark.

On the other hand, an absence of live export activity in lamb sales has been a negative for the trade.

There was a void in purchasing during the Ramadan festival, which would have inserted more life into the trade.

There looks to be demand building ahead of the upcoming festival, Eid Al Adha, with live export company Emerald Green Exports looking to source over 10,000 lambs in the first few weeks of September.

There are also reports of other live exporters looking at the trade and the possibility of exporting lambs live to north African markets.