Green diesel prices are on an upwards trajectory in light of continued troubles in the Middle East.

This week as we went to press, quotes for bulk orders of green diesel or marked gas oil (MGO) ranged from €1.51/l to €1.59/l, including VAT.

To put the current price into context, green diesel prices at the end of April were around €1.42/l including VAT; prices were around €1.35/l including VAT in the third week of May, and were around €1.15/l including VAT in mid-June.

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By the start of July, bulk quotes had settled to lows of €1.06/l, including VAT. At the start of August, quotes were averaging €1.37/l including VAT.

Since peace talks between the US and Iran began to break down in early July, fuel prices have been steadily on the rise, climbing by over 50c/l including VAT to date.

Brent crude up 46%

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has continued to rally over the past month, trading between $98/barrel and $99/barrel as we went to press this week.

Over the past month, the price of Brent crude has jumped over 11.3% and is up 46% compared to the same time last year.

However, until now, prices for the commodity have stayed below $100/barrel, despite recent escalation disrupting Gulf exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

It is reported that in the week before fighting erupted again on 30 August, approximately 8-9 million barrels had been flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, double the volume from the previous week.

Flows have now fallen below 2 million barrels per day, with the daily moving average of 4-5 million barrels per day.

For context, Hormuz exports had reached pre-war levels of 16 million barrels per day during the interim US-Iran peace talks. It is reported that Gulf producers have found alternative routes which involve sending cargoes for ship-to-ship transfers outside of the strait, helping mitigate some of the earlier shortfall.

Non-OPEC producers, which include the US, Canada and Guyana are set to increase oil exports by a combined 1.4 million barrels per day this year. Meanwhile, as Russian refineries continue to be hit by Ukrainian attacks, Russia has downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low which is expected to reduce its exports.