As Kieran Mailey reports on page 44, what might happen to milk price later in 2018 remains an unknown, although in the short term it does look like there will be a correction downwards in the first three months of 2018.

Aside from the weather, 2017 was a good year for dairying in NI, with milk price set to average over 28p/l, the highest since 2014, and the third highest yearly average recorded in the last 10 years.

It should not be forgotten that the upturn in the market was due to tight supply across Europe, not a big lift in demand, as producers finally reacted to low prices by cutting numbers.

The EU milk production reduction scheme, which provided a financial incentive to farmers who cut milk output for a three-month period between October 2016 and March 2017, also had a positive effect.

While this scheme was generally dismissed by some in the main farm organisations across this island, surely the principle of European dairy farmers taking control of the amount of milk they produce when supply moves ahead of demand, has merit.

The experience of 2015 and 2016 was that farmers initially reacted to lower prices by producing even more milk, which just exacerbated the downward slide even more.

Next time around, it is hard to see the Commission being as willing to step in to support the sector and to try to manage the market. Putting aside a fund for a voluntary reduction scheme, by way of a small levy on milk, is worthy of debate.

Main message

In NI, the main message going to dairy farmers at present seems to be to continue to produce more and more. That might be right for processors, but it must also be right on an individual farm, and ultimately deliver increased profit. However, if it means a farmer must take on even more debt, be more reliant on unreliable labour, feed even more meal, get less grass into cows, or work even longer hours, then perhaps caution is required.