The land market is never the most accurate metric by which to measure farmer sentiment, but it invariably provides valuable insights into emerging trends and developments in the industry.

One noticeable feature of the land market of late is the number of commercial farms in the 80-200ac bracket which have been offered for sale over the last 12 months.

What does this tell us about what is happening in farming?

ADVERTISEMENT

Does it suggest that the Commission on Generational Renewal is late to the game for the many farm families who have already made their decisions on succession?

Is this a developing trend in the market or is it merely a function of price?

Some very high prices have been offered for land over the last two years and there is a view by some that these prices cannot hold given the serious challenges that are inevitably coming down the tracks for farming.

These challenges, which include the possible loss of the nitrates derogation, tighter environmental and climate change controls, and greater restrictions on fertiliser usage and slurry storage, have the potential to significantly alter farm management practices.

With €18,000-22,000/ac fairly freely available across the south and east for top quality holdings – and €12,000-18,000/ac in the west – there is a view that more families are opting to take the money and sell their farms rather than leasing the property in the hope that one of the children will eventually come home and take the place over.

The assessment that an increased number of commercial farms have come on the market over the last 12 months also tallies with mart manager reports of a lot more clearance sales of dairy and suckler herds.

However, given that just 1% of farmland is generally sold on the open market each year, it would be dangerous to read too much into what is essentially anecdotal evidence relating to a very small sample.

Any number of reasons can feed into a family’s decision to sell the farm.

Even so, there are strong indications that a significant shift has started to take hold across both the drystock sector and among those dairy farmers who are now at the smaller end of the size spectrum – milking 50 to 80 cows.

If this assessment is correct then it has serious implications for Irish agriculture, from the farmyard to the suppliers of inputs and services, and beyond that to meat and dairy processors.

At the very least, you’d think some research into land sales is merited to establish whether the assertion that more commercial farms are being sold at the moment holds water or not.