Over the next three decades, the global population is forecast to swell to more than nine billion people, driven mainly by population growth in Africa and Asia. At the same time, the population structure of many societies will also undergo a significant transformation.

People aged over 65 represent the fastest growing segment of the global population; their numbers are expected to double to more than 1.1 billion by 2035 (which will represent 13% of the global population).

People are living longer than ever before thanks to advances in medical science, better nutrition and improved standards of living. According to the latest World Health Organisation (WHO) report in 2012, the average global life expectancy at birth is 70 years compared with the average in 1990, which was 64 years. The improvement in life expectancy has been most notable in low-income countries, with nine years added to average life expectancy between 1990 and 2012.

However, in some parts of the world, mainly developed nations, birth rates are below replacement levels, meaning the future labour force of these regions will be under massive strain to provide for an expanding elderly population.

In Europe, for example, population growth is stagnant in most countries and actually in decline in others. This decline in European fertility rates is occurring at a time when the continent’s elderly population is rapidly increasing due to the ageing of the post-war baby boomers. Currently, there are 87 million people aged 65 or more living in the EU and this is projected to reach 148 million by 2050.

The present population structure of the EU is well balanced, with 66% of the total population between 15 and 64 years of age. However, due to consistently low birth rates and higher life expectancy, the age structure of Europe is changing rapidly, with the proportion of people of working age (15 to 64 years) projected to shrink to 57% of the total population by 2050.

At the same time, the share of the population aged 65 years or over will swell from 18% at present to over 28% by 2050 as more of the current working population reach retirement. Recognising this shift in demographics, the EU Commission has developed a number of strategies to meet the challenge of providing for a larger elderly population.

While Europe and other developing nations may be experiencing a stagnation in population growth, the rising economic powers of the world in Asia and Africa are not. But while these countries are experiencing substantial population growth now, research from the United Nations suggests that fertility rates in these countries is falling and will eventually come in line with the developed world.

If this is the case, it is likely that the future population structures of these countries, and the world as a whole, are heading the same direction as Europe. But the fertility rates of countries in the developing world are declining at a far greater pace than the decline seen in developed nations over the past 20 years.

Impact

Our image of what an old person is must change. This is the generation that holds a lot of the wealth, is increasingly active and has plenty of time. It creates a significant opportunity for Irish agri-food businesses to develop products for this growing demographic that appeal to the health needs of an ageing population. The market is immature which presents opportunities. As people live longer they will demand different types of food, fortified with vitamins and other health attributes.

Read more from this year's KPMG/Irish Farmers Journal Agribusiness report here.