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Tight cattle and sheep supply in Britain mean that less beef and lamb was produced in the first quarter of 2025 compared with last year. According to DEFRA data published by AHDB, Beef production for the first three months of 2025 was 224,800 tonnes. This represents a fall of 3.5% or 8,100 tonnes compared with the same period in 2024.
This drop in output reflects a fall in factory cattle throughput. Prime cattle numbers, which includes all steers, heifers and young bulls, fell by 14,000 head or 2.6% to 508,000 in the first quarter of 2025. The fact that the fall in beef production was higher than the drop in cattle throughput reflects the fact that in the first quarter, average carcase weights were 1.5kg lower than in the same period last year according to AHDB analysis.
The percentage drop in cull cow numbers going through factories in quarter one was even higher, down 6,000 head or 4% compared with the same period last year. AHDB suggests that this could reflect better milk margins encouraging farmers to keep cows in production as opposed to culling them.
Sheep meat production.
IT was a similar trend with sheep meat production in quarter one 2025. The DEFRA/AHDB data shows that production fell by 3,100 tonnes or 4.5% to 65,600 tonnes compared with the same period last year. Sheep numbers were also down with the clean sheep slaughter at 2.77m head for the first quarter, 111,000 head or 3.8% less than last year while adult sheep numbers were down 12.8% or 46,000 head in the fist quarter.
AHDB highlight that “the alignment of religious holidays, coupled with strong demand incentivised by retailer promotions, drove high prices over this period last year, potentially pushing kill numbers higher.” They also point to weaker retail demand so far in 2025 combined with a later leaser as like contributors to a smaller kill this year so far.
Not just in Britain
Sheep meat through put in Irish factories is also well down this year so far compared with 2024. Up to the 12th April, 610,397 sheep were processed according to Bord Bia which is 20.8% less than the 770,908 that were processed in the same period last year.
Comment - opportunity for imports
This fall in sheep meat production creates an import opportunity for Australia and New Zealand, the two largest global exporters of sheep meat. Sheep meat is the only meat where the UK and EU combined traditionally consume more than they produce and this gap is widening.
In the first three months of 2025, Australia have made good use of their tariff free quota, secured in their trade deal with the UK. They shipped 6,146 tonnes of lamb and mutton combined, an 80% increase on the 3,405 tonnes shipped in the fist quarter of 2024. Australia’s beef exports to the UK also increased in quarter one to 1,891 tonnes, up from 1,134 tonnes in the same period last year.
New Zealand who has a long term tariff free quota for the UK, exported 6,996 tonnes of sheep meat to the UK in January and February, up from 6,678 tonnes in the first tow months of 2024. New Zealand exported 13,170 tonnes of sheep meat to the EU during January and February 2025, up from 12,034 tonnes in the same period last year.
With the weak supply situation in Europe, the market is well able to carry these imports. It would be very different if UK and EU including Irish production was to recover.
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