There was a rebound in Brazil’s beef exports to China in October, as traders shipped the first deliveries that will land at the beginning of the new tariff year, which starts on 1 January.
ABIEC – Brazil’s meat industry association – reported that the volume dispatched was 45,600 tonnes (t), a dramatic increase on the 12,900t shipped in September.
This made China its number one beef export again, replacing the United States, which had held top spot for the previous two months.
ABIEC suggests that “the recovery is related to the resumption of commercial operations destined for the next cycle of the Chinese safeguard”, referring to the 2027 tariff year.
Despite the recovery, the volume exported in October is still a long way behind the 190,800t shipped in the same month last year when there was no quota in place.
In October last year, China received over 53% of all Brazil’s beef exports, whereas, this year, China accounted for just under 20% of total exports.
United States market
For the previous two months, the United States was Brazil’s largest beef export market. It dropped to second place in October with a still-healthy 35,500t, a huge 174% increase compared with October 2025.
Part of the explanation for this increase is the fact that, last year, the US had additional tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil, though these lasted for a very short time.
In contrast, this October not only were there no additional tariffs, the standard 25% tariff on beef imports was suspended for the second of three months on manufacturing beef for use in minced beef production. This was an extra attraction in the US as a destination for Brazil’s beef exports.
Other markets
The European Union didn’t feature as an export market for Brazilian beef due to the EU suspension introduced because of inadequate antibiotic controls.
However, with the resumption of large volumes to China and a strong US market, it can be concluded that the EU wasn’t really missed by Brazilian exporters in October.
In fact, ABIEC points out that excluding the shipments to China, Brazil’s fresh beef exports to other markets totalled 153,500t in October, the highest monthly total for fresh beef since records began in 1997.
When China is added, the total is 195,400t of fresh beef, the third-highest monthly total for October. Fresh beef represented 84.5% of Brazil’s total beef exports in October.
ABIEC noted the diversification of Brazil’s beef export markets, with 15,100t exported to Chile, 13,800t to Egypt, 11,300t to Saudi Arabia and 11,300t to Indonesia.
The increased demand from the US for imported beef during the third quarter of this year was a godsend for Brazilian beef exporters.
This coincided with the period when the 2026 China quota was filled and it was too early to begin dispatches for 2027.
In October, these started again and we can expect to see volumes ramp up in the last two months of the year.
We can also expect that there will be large volumes exported to China in the first half of next year, though it will be uncertain from the middle of the year onwards as the 2027 quota fills up.
