Brazil’s beef exports in May continued to defy forecasts by recording a further increase.
ABIEC, which represents exporters, reports that the volume exported in May was 297,000 tonnes, a 17.8% increase on the 252,000 tonnes exported in the same month last year.
It was also an increase of 2.9% on the volume exported in April and the revenue value was $1.83bn (€1.63bn).
As always, the main export market in May was China.
It was the destination for 157,600 tonnes or 53.1% of all Brazil’s beef exports last month, a huge 39.1% increase on the amount exported to China in May 2025.
The increase is partly explained by the exporters' scramble to maximise sales ahead of the quota for 2026 being filled, after which a 55% tariff would have to be paid.
The US was the second largest market for Brazil’s beef exports in May, taking 28,800 tonnes, a 5% increase compared with May last year.
Next was Russia on 13,700 tonnes, followed by Chile on 8,500 tonnes and then the EU on 8,300 tonnes.
Year to date
For the first five months of the year, Brazil has exported 1.388m tonnes of beef which is a 15.3% increase on the 1.204m tonnes exported in the same period in 2025.
What is even more striking is the increase in value of Brazil’s beef exports this year compared with last year.
The overall value this year so far is $7.88bn (€6.85bn) which works out at $5,677 (€4,928) per tonne, significantly higher than the $4,824 (€4,195) per tonne averaged in the same period last year.
At this point, Brazil has exported 631,900 tonnes of beef to China, more than half the 1.1m tonne quota that is available for 2026.
It is widely expected that the quota will be filled well ahead of the year end and it is believed that some processors are already preparing for China being effectively closed when the quota is filled due to the prohibitive 55% tariff on out of quota product.
If and when Brazil’s quota for China is filled, it is impossible to say what impact it will have on global beef markets as this will be uncharted territory.
Over the past decade and a half, China’s demand for beef imports increased in sync with Brazil’s increased volume of beef exports. However, in recent years, China’s demand has levelled off while Brazil’s export volumes continued to grow.
US option
The fact that the US cattle herd is at a 75-year low and its beef imports have been increasing over recent years, makes the US an option for more Brazilian beef.
What will be of particular interest to Irish farmers is the extent to which Brazil’s beef exports to the UK and EU increase in the latter part of the year.
The trend has been upwards even with China open and it seems inevitable that both the UK and EU will become even more important markets for Brazil’s beef exports once the China quota is filled.
SHARING OPTIONS