Chinks of light are appearing in the beef trade this week, with quotes remaining on a par with what was being quoted last week in most factories.

The old trick of quoting one price, but being able to pay a little more has come back on the table this week, with 5c to 10c/kg more going to those who are able to bargain hard.

Bullocks are being quoted at €4.50/kg to €4.55/kg, but I know of one factory paying €4.65/kg to get a load of bullocks this week.

Heifers are working off quotes of €4.55/kg to €4.60/kg, but more is being paid when the pressure is put on.

Foyle Meats, Donegal, is still out in front with its base quote of €4.65/kg for bullocks and €4.70/kg for heifers.

This quote excludes the 10c/kg bonus for carcases killing out between 300kg and 400kg and also excludes any breed bonuses.

Bonuses remain from 10c to 20c/kg in most factories for suitable quality assured Hereford and Aberdeen Angus cattle.

Price gap

A gap of almost 30c remains between the Irish price and the beef price in our main markets.

Most factories will only kill four days this week and there were some worries that demand may have been subdued this week, but factories are eager for stock in the face of dwindling numbers.

While the kill has touched 40,000 head in the last few weeks, there has been a big drop off in the number of bullocks killed last week, with the bullock kill back 1,500 head on the previous week.

The cow kill rose by 1,000 head last week up to 9,105, the highest cow kill since the last week of November 2021. The heifer kill remained steady, with the bull kill up slightly on the previous week.

Under-24-month bulls are being quoted at €4.80/kg for R grading bulls, with a little more going for U grading bulls in some factories. O grading bulls are coming in at €4.60/kg to €4.70/kg, depending on quality and flesh cover.

Under-16-month bulls are working off a base price of €4.70/kg to €4.80/kg.

Cows

The cow trade remains under pressure, with some factories quoting €3.80/kg to €3.90/kg this week for P grading cows.

O grading cows are working off €4.00/kg to €4.20/kg, with R grading cows coming in at €4.30/kg to €4.40/kg.

Some factories specialising in cows are applying 5c to 10c/kg more, especially for good-quality young cows.

Global forecast for 2023

The latest United States Department of Agriculture forecast shows that global beef production will see a decline in 2023.

The USA will see one of the largest declines in production, forecast to be down 6.3% in 2023 or just over 800,000t. This is due to drought conditions in the last few years, which has forced suckler farms to cull hard.

Closer to home, the EU is forecast to be down 1.8% or 120,000t less compared with 2022.

Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, is forecast to be up 1% in production or 100,000t in 2023, while Australia is forecast to be up 13% or 260,000t in 2023.

Global exports are also forecast to decline, dropping 1.2% in 2023 to 12.1 million tonnes. This is linked to lower demand, particularly from China, which is forecast to ramp up beef production by 375,000t in 2023.

NI comment

Demand for finished cattle is strong, with factories prioritising prime stock over cull cows in the run-up to Christmas.

The top quote for U-3 animals is 428p/kg (€5.19/kg inc VAT), with steers on 440p/kg (€5.33/kg) and heifers on 442p to 446p/kg (€5.35 to €5.40/kg).

Demand for cull cows has eased as agents look for prime cattle, but good-quality beef animals are on 375p/kg (€4.54/kg).

Prices for finished cattle in Britain are trading well above 450p/kg (€5.45/kg), with R4L animals at 455p/kg (€5.51/kg).