Beef supplies are expected to stay tight across the EU, as declining herd sizes leave fewer cattle available for processors, according to the European Commission’s market outlook.
The three largest beef producers in the EU – France, Spain and Germany – have all witnessed beef output declines of around 4-5% since the beginning of the year.
Countries with a higher beef output in the earlier half of this year, such as Ireland, are a minority in the EU’s beef sector overall.
The Commission forecasts tight cattle supplies remaining into next year, as the low availability of supplies is driven by declining numbers and not by market dynamics.
High EU beef prices are leaving the market favourable for other regions of the world to export to, with increased imports from Mercosur countries and up significantly in the case of frozen supplies.
However, despite these strong prices EU consumers’ demand for beef has been reported as “robust” in the Commission’s outlook.
Prices are expected to dent the average consumer’s yearly beef intake by less than 1%, which is lower than the forecast decline in output.
The outlook notes that there is “stable demand” for dairy products in retail and processing, despite food inflation.
Favourable conditions for growing forage are anticipated to allow higher milk constituents and yields to prevent a 1% drop in EU-wide cow numbers contributing to a decline in overall milk output.
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