EU beef prices are to remain strong for the remainder of 2026, despite recent cooling in quotes from record highs, according to the European Commission’s latest short-term market outlook for agriculture.

Beef prices across the EU peaked just months ago at double 2021’s levels on the back of low factory throughput and the Commission’s outlook expects “persistent supply constraints” for the rest of 2026 -and possibly 2027 – to put a sturdy floor under prices.

The outlook puts the tightness in EU beef supplies down to a “structural decline in the cow herd” rather than short-term market dynamics.

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Beef volumes hitting the market were down 4.1% last year and were followed by a similar output decrease of 4% early this year.

The decline in the EU's beef kill saw an even higher year-on-year decline of 6.2% but a lift in carcase weights softened this slump in volume terms, the report said.

Imports and exports

Lower beef output is expected to see beef exports from the EU down 12% in 2026 and conflict in the Middle East is expected to deliver another blow to the live export of beef cattle from EU to non-EU countries.

The outlook references the trend of the EU’s decreasing share of beef imports to the UK – at Australia’s benefit – that has already been well-flagged by Irish beef processors.

The live trade is anticipated to suffer an 18% decline after a difficult 2025, which saw numbers plummet 37% as markets like Turkey came under pressure.

The 3 September meat export ban to the EU looming for Brazilian meat products was referenced as factor that could thwart the rise in beef imports.

“Imports are expected to rise by 12%, driven by inflows from South America following the Mercosur agreement’s entry into force,” the Commission document states.

“However, if the EU suspends Brazilian imports from September due to non-compliance with antimicrobial rules in animal production, beef and poultry, imports may decline.”