Buoyant UK demand for Irish beef, which has helped bolster cattle prices over the last 12 months, will continue into 2022, British industry analysts have forecast.

In a welcome boost for beef farmers, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has predicted that the widening beef price differential between Ireland and Britain will make Irish exports to the UK “increasingly attractive” this year.

Stronger beef sales in the UK eating-out market following the lifting of COVID restrictions will also drive demand for Irish product.

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Increased discount

“With Irish cattle currently at an increased discount to UK animals, imports are likely to become more attractive, especially if domestic food service demand increases,” the AHDB outlook for 2022 states.

Irish steer prices are currently running 60c to 70c/kg below British factory quotes.

While R grade bullocks in the UK are making the equivalent of €5.10/kg to €5.20/kg, the Irish price is €4.45/kg to €4.50/kg, including the 20c/kg QA bonus. This differential equates to around €200 on a 350kg carcase.

Rise in production

“A forecast rise in production of price-competitive Irish product and expectations of greater demand for beef from the UK eating out market will likely make Irish imports increasingly attractive in 2022,” the AHDB maintained.

Strong demand for beef in Britain continues to be driven by reduced domestic supplies. UK beef production fell 5.6% between 2020 and 2021, dropping from 923,000t to 881,000t.

While British beef output is forecast to grow by 1% in 2022 to 890,000t, this is still 30,000t below 2020 levels.

Beef imports are also forecast to grow marginally this year, increasing from 365,000t to 367,000t.

Irish beef exports to the UK totalled 194,000t in 2021, with the trade worth €883m. In 2020, Ireland exported 245,000t to Britain, with the trade generating €903m in earnings.