Teagasc economists presenting their annual review and outlook this week were somewhat surprised that the estimated drop in 2018 average dairy farm incomes came to 22%, while there were fears in the midst of the summer drought that it could be cut by half.

Meanwhile, drystock farmers appear to have taken a more severe hit than expected.

“Do we have the full story on feed?” wondered Trevor Donnellan.

Teagasc estimates feed usage – this year’s key burden on livestock farmers – based on official sale figures for dairy, beef and sheep ration reported to the Department of Agriculture.

There could have been some confusion during the summer’s great scramble for feed.

“There is speculation that if dairy feed was scarce, farmers may have told their merchant that beef feed will do,” Donnellan said.

This extra cost would then have been attributed to the beef sector, while it really hit dairy farms. Only the national farm survey to be conducted in the first half of next year can solve the mystery.