So far, the weather forecast in 2023 has been a bit like a see-saw, going from very dry in February to very wet in March and April and then very dry again in May.

There is no rain in the long-term forecast, which means that those on dry soils are soon to start experiencing soil moisture deficits that restrict grass growth.

There is nothing that can be done to prevent this from happening and, who knows, it might start raining in 10 days’ time and not stop for the summer.

Plan for a shortage

However, based on the information available to us today it would be prudent to plan for a grass shortage.

The simplest way of doing this is to increase the amount of grass available per cow to at or above the higher end of the target.

Carrying more grass on the farm means that if a deficit does come, additional supplement can be delayed because cows will have more grass to munch through.

The standard target for most farms is to have an average farm cover of 170kg to 200kg per cow at this time of year.

Based on the high risks of a grass deficit on some farms, particularly in the southeast, I would suggest that if farmers are currently experiencing a grass surplus - that is over 200kg per cow - I would be inclined not to take out paddocks for silage.

Another thing that slows growth is topping, pre-mowing or mowing out paddocks for silage, so this should be avoided if a grass deficit is imminent.