While it is always welcome to see the GAA back in official action and gratifying to see the coverage it is receiving nationally, in early January we cannot give it too much importance. The blood and thunder is a long way off on the Gaelic front, but there will be plenty of it in the Heineken Cup this weekend. After four rounds of the competition, there is only one team still unbeaten and that is Ulster. With a Ravenhill fixture to come against Montpellier, who have already lost three times in the tournament, Ulster look home and hosed for the quarter-finals and a Belfast fixture – possibly as the tournament’s top seeds.

This augurs well for the province that is welcoming some key men back to fitness, not least potential game-breakers Luke Marshall and Craig Gilroy to add to Tommy Bowe and Ruan Pienaar behind the scrum. If ever a side needed a Six Nations to pass off injury-free it is Ulster, because their path to a semi-final appears clear.

Ulster have been my pick for some time now for this, possibly the last of the Heineken Cups of the current format, and if their squad is close to full health in April/May, they will rattle it. Montpellier are a stepping stone this Friday night. Once that job is done and the bonus point secured, probably within 50 minutes, the Red Hand will then sit back on 23 points and watch the rest battle it out.

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Munster and Gloucester are among the rest of the contenders. These two have history and with only one loss to date in the group to Gloucester’s two, Munster can wrap up the pool with a win this Saturday night in Kingsholm. Of course, this is easier said than done but, like Ulster, Munster have had some good news this week as regards the health of their panel. Simon Zebo, Keith Earls, Conor Murray, James Downey and Donncha O’Callaghan all returned to training and while all won’t be ready for Gloucester, the week after Munster can still wrap up the group by beating Edinburgh in Thomond. A bonus-point win the weekend after next might be needed.

Munster being Munster, qualification is never straightforward. Should Gloucester win on Saturday night with a bonus point, they then join Munster on 14 points at the top of the pool. Conceding four tries is a Munster rarity, however; losing by less than seven and grabbing their own bonus point is more likely.

Reaching the last eight is well within Munster’s reach right now. However, if they are to snatch one of the valuable four home quarter-final slots, then they need to win this weekend and mop up Edinburgh in revenge for their shock first-round loss a week later. The nature of Munster’s incredible last-gasp victory over Perpignan suggests that away from home Munster are somewhere close to the team that just always knew how to win close games. That quality would be useful on Saturday.

It will be tight in Kingsholm. It will be old-school rugby. Forwards win matches like this and in Paul O’Connell and Peter O’Mahony the visitors have two effective and experienced men for the trenches. Munster to grind it out and win their second away fixture in a row.

Just over a month ago, Leinster were the favourites for the Heineken Cup and looking their old irresistible selves. Eighty minutes in the Aviva seemed to undo most of those expectations when Northampton completed a remarkable seven-day turnaround by even depriving Leinster a losing bonus point. Since then the news that Sean O’Brien is out for at least two months won’t have helped their cause and it is a somewhat chastened Leinster who take on Castres in France on Sunday afternoon.

Don’t be fooled. Leinster are in good shape. They will beat the French side, who are already out of the competition, and their last game is at home to the Ospreys the following weekend. Nine points out of the two weeks is probable; 10 points possible. That would put Leinster on 23 points and in the top four, which would mean a home last-eight tie. By then, O’Brien should be back and fresh for action. These guys are still right there.

Last but by no means least come Connacht, who have come down to earth following their incredible away win over Toulouse. The team from the West cannot now qualify from the group but will beat Zebre on Saturday and with a bonus point would sit on 14 points going into the last weekend.

While it might sound patronising, this is no mean feat for the undernourished of the provinces. A redrawn European competition will probably see them eliminated from the Heineken Cup proper and they will be a loss to the tournament. High-profile wins over the likes of Toulouse and Harlequins in Europe in recent years have reminded us that rugby still has the ability to surprise. As the money men get their way, those rare days will become almost extinct.

This time next week we should be looking at Ulster (guaranteed), Munster and Leinster all in pole position for quarter-final places. That’s a decent turnaround from last year when Munster scraped in and Leinster were scraped out. It’s another healthy sign for Irish rugby which can frank that form in the Six Nations. All we need now is a relatively injury-free couple of months, something we’re due after last season’s annus horribilis.

If there was such a thing as the black card in rugby, the refs would be busy this weekend and things would get complicated. Instead we have the sin bin and why is that? Because it works. So does the Heineken Cup.