A five-seat constituency along county boundaries, the population of Wexford increased rapidly during the Tiger years, with a lot of Dubliners relocating. The population was 145,000 at the 2011 census, with an expected electorate of 115,000.

The rural issues

Traditionally, farming has been a dominant activity in Wexford, giving the county its nickname of the Model County. A lot of Wexford people now work in Dublin, with motorways up the coast and from Carlow feeding commuters into the capital city.

Wexford’s roads are in poor repair, which is notable when crossing into the county, whether from Kilkenny, Carlow, or Wicklow. This is in part due to the fact that there are more roads per square mile in Wexford than in any other county, but excuses are wearing thin.

The farming issues

There have been quite a few dairy converts post-quota, and the poor prices for milk and grain (Wexford vies with Cork as Ireland’s leading tillage county) are a big issue. For drystock farmers, the ABP purchase of Bert Allen’s 50% share of Slaney foods is important, with a large protest at Slaney Meats in Clohamon last Sunday. Irish Country Meats’s Camolin factory is also in the county.

Who will get elected?

Expect Mick Wallace and Brendan Howlin to comfortably retain their seats. Paul Kehoe, the Government’s chief whip, should join them without too much drama. Fianna Fáil field three first-time candidates, with James Browne hoping to maintain the family dynasty begun by grand-uncle Sean and continued by his father John, a former junior agriculture minister. Aoife Byrne’s father Hugh held the same office previously. Malcolm Byrne and Fine Gael’s Michael D’Arcy (whose father was, you’ve guessed it, a junior agriculture minister back in the 1980s) will be involved in a battle for the fifth seat with independent Ger Carthy and Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen. Transfers will decide the last two seats. With 17 candidates, they may behave strangely, with geography as influential as history.

Farming links

Michael D’Arcy is a farmer, as is independent candidate Paul Howlin. Paul Kehoe is from a farm, and was formerly Macra co-chairman. Of course, we also have the legacy of all those Junior ministers. Mick Wallace’s family are farming merchants in Wellingtonbridge, and Aoife Byrne is from a farming family.

The odds courtesy of Paddy Power

Mick Wallace (Ind) 1/14

Johnny Mythen (Sinn Fein) 2/1

Ann Walsh (Green Party) 80/1

Paul Kehoe (Fine Gael) 1/10

Ger Carthy (Ind) 11/4

Caroline Fox (Ind) 80/1

Brendan Howlin (Labour) 1/10

Aoife Byrne (Fianna Fail) 9/1

David Lloyd (DDI-NCM) 80/1

James Browne (Fianna Fail) 2/9

Deirdre Wadding (AAA-PBP) 33/1