Futures wheat prices were largely flat across the past week, although they finished lower on Friday when MATIF December wheat closed at €250.50/t last week versus €257.50/t the previous Friday.

It lost value very early in that week, but rose back up to €250.50/t and then closed on Tuesday night at €250/t.

There has been little to drive the market other than Black Sea issues, but it has remained stubbornly strong at around the €250/t mark .

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It seems like the market is unable to remain below that value for long.

That said, marketeers still see wheat and barley as marginally bearish for the year ahead, for now at least.

Demand concerns

One of the growing concerns in the market is where overall demand will go six to 12 months down the road.

Problems in the pig sector could well affect overall feed demand and higher feed ingredient prices make concentrate feeding more challenging in the ruminant sector.

Recent US maize export sales were lower than expected and China is said to have cancelled 380,000t of maize shipments from there.

This would make a significant change on recent years, where lack of supply was the main market driver.

Supply could still prove to be an issue for 2022 if growers around the world opt to decrease fertiliser rates to reduce their financial exposure in this very uncertain time.

If reduced fertiliser use results in lower yields, supply could still be an issue, even if there was some element of demand reduction.

Last week’s drivers

The fall in wheat prices are said to have had two major influences last week – the fact that Black Sea exports have been able to continue and rain in the winter wheat areas of the US.

However, some of the losses in wheat prices during the week were recovered on Friday when markets picked up again, due to what is termed technical trading and also renewed buying by speculators.

It is suggested that this was due to a reappraisal of their positions ahead of the USDA report this week.

Concerns continue around the South American maize crop, with a number of analysts cutting output by various degrees.

Native prices

Native prices feel slightly weaker this week, partly due to lack of demand.

Nearby wheat is back around €300/t or slightly stronger at times and barley is pretty much the same price.

New-crops prices are slightly stronger, with wheat just edging above €250/t and barley running €10/t below wheat.