Across the first half of 2026, actual prices paid by processors have generally hovered around the 31 to 33p/l mark for average-quality milk in NI.

Looking back at the same period in 2025, those prices started out the year at close to 46p/l and while they did gradually drop to approximately 41p/l by June, it was still enough to generate a pretty healthy cash surplus on farms.

That situation is very different now. Shown in Table 1 is a best estimate of the cash coming into an average-sized NI dairy farm, producing 750,000l annually, over the first half of both years.

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Payout

To calculate cash income, we have utilised the payout data shown each month in Figure 1 on the opposite page.

This payout is calculated using prices paid by each processor, adjusted for actual solids in the same month, with litres in line with the NI average supply curve.

As highlighted in the table, a typical 750,000l dairy farm in NI brought in £175,672 in milk sales during the fist six months of 2025 and this has reduced to £133,740 in 2026.

It works out at a total cash hit of £42,000 or £7,000 per month of lower income.

2m-litre suppliers

We have also adjusted the figures to show the extent of the hit being taken on large dairy farms. Shown in Table 2 is our best estimate of the income from milk sales on a NI dairy farm producing 2m litres of milk annually, with monthly litres in line with typical NI supply and adjustments made to allow for volume bonuses.

In the first half of 2025, this size of farm brought in £470,343 in milk sales and this has fallen to £358,464 in 2026. It is a reduction of nearly £112,000 or over £18,500 per month.

The only thing not accounted for in our figures is increased output on farms between both years.

Figures published by DAERA to the end of April 2026 show that NI dairy farmers produced a record high of 1.01bn litres, up 3.9% on the same period in 2025.

Allowing for 3.9% extra milk in 2026 would take the cash hit on this large dairy farm to just below £100,000, although those extra litres also come with extra costs.