Global beef supplies to drop by 3% in 2026 - Rabobank research

Global beef output in 2026 is forecast to drop by a massive 1.5m tonnes or 3.1% compared to 2025 levels, according to the latest projections from Rabobank’s research arm RaboResearch.

Key regions where beef output is expected to decline include Brazil, the US and Canada, RaboResearch maintained in its review of global beef trends for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The tighter supply projections will be good news for Irish beef farmers, as the lower global output will drive demand and prices in already red hot market.

RaboResearch estimated that global beef supplies for 2025 were 0.8% back on 2024.

The drop in US beef output for 2025 is expected to be in the region of 4% or 500,000 tonnes. Beef output in the EU and UK in 2025 is expected to fall 3% or 225,000 tonnes, with Canada back 3.9% or 50,000 tonnes.

New Zealand output

Beef output in New Zealand is estimated to have fallen by 34,000 tonnes or 4.7% in 2025 compared to 2024.

In contrast, beef output on the other side of the Tasman Sea rose by around 11% in 2025 on the back of stronger Australian cattle numbers. Final figures are expected to show that output also increased marginally in China and Brazil in 2025.

Looking to 2026, the RaboResearch review has forecast a further contraction in cattle slaughter levels in Europe and the US.

The review noted that the EU cow herd was 7% below 2024 levels in June of 2025. It predicted continued upward pressure on beef prices as supplies across Europe remained tight.

Fall

In the US, the overall cattle kill is expected to fall by 1.5 to 2 million head in 2026. This is driven by decreased Mexican cattle imports, fewer beef-dairy crossbred calves and progress in cow herd rebuilding.

Australia and Mexico are two large beef producers who are likely to hold exports at very high levels or expand in 2026.

Beef output reached record levels in Australia in 2025 at 2.9m tonnes. This translated into 1.3m tonnes of exports in the first 10 months of the year.

High prices are expected to hold output, but export levels could be impacted by weather events.

Mexico is expected to grow beef exports in 2026 to around 380,000 to 400,000 tonnes.

This is due to increased cattle supplies and the closing of the US outlet for Mexican live cattle due to the spread of new world screwworm south of the Rio Grande.