The total number of dairy cows in NI increased by 2% in the 12 months to June 2016 to a record high level of 317,100 head, according to final results from the June agricultural census published last week by DAERA.

The NI dairy herd has increased significantly in size from a 15-year low of 279,500 in 2013. Since then, the increase in numbers mainly came in 2014 (294,192) and 2015 (311,520). The current level is significantly higher than the average over the last 10 years of 291,120. The figures suggest that one of the main responses of farmers to falling milk prices since 2013 was to keep more cows and produce more milk.

However, with increased slaughtering of cows in local factories and fewer replacements coming forward, it is expected that the total dairy herd has already started to contract. Figures from DAERA show that total throughput of both dairy and suckler cows in NI factories up to mid-November in 2016 is 12% higher than in the same period last year (86,635 v 77,293).

A good grass growing season perhaps delayed culling on some dairy farms, but DAERA figures show that cull cow numbers over the last six weeks are now up 14% on the same period in 2015.

Replacements

The figures also indicate that the number of dairy replacements coming through is significantly down, with the agricultural census highlighting that the number of in-calf dairy heifers in NI in June was at a 14-year low at 58,800, a 3% decrease on 2015 levels.

Production

With numbers starting to contract it is having an effect on overall milk production, with DAERA figures showing that monthly milk supply in NI was down 9.9m litres or 6.1% in September compared with the same month last year. For the first nine months of the year, milk supply is down 1.9% in NI compared to the same period in 2016.

However, the major factor in reduced milk supply appears to be due to less concentrates being fed on dairy farms as producers look to cut costs. Dairy compound and blend deliveries are down by 1.8% and 18% to 363,500t and 146,300t, respectively, in the first nine months of 2016 compared with the same period last year.