Preliminary results of the June 2014 agricultural census released by DARD indicate there were 5% less suckler cows on local farms in June 2014 compared with the same date in 2013.

In total, suckler cow numbers have fallen to 257,000, down from 270,000 in June 2013. It is the second lowest annual figure over the past 23 years, only beaten by the 256,800 recorded on farms in June 2009.

Back then, there were 37,600 in-calf beef heifers ready to come into the herd, but the 2014 data puts the number of in-calf beef heifers at only 31,900.

Within this figure, there were 12,000 in-calf beef heifers under two years old, the lowest number recorded since the mid-1980s. It all points to a further contraction in the suckler herd over the next few years, driven by the current pressure on margins in the sector.

While the suckler herd has contracted, the number of dairy cows recorded on farms in June was 292,100, up 5% on last year and the highest number recorded for 12 years.

Strong milk prices over the past 12 months have encouraged producers to hold onto less productive or older cows. This is also reflected in the local cow kill, which is down 11% to the end of August, compared with the same period in 2013. With the number of in-calf dairy heifers down 8% on 2013 figures to 62,000 (a 10-year low), a reduction in dairy cow numbers can be expected this winter, especially given the negative outlook for winter milk price.

While local abattoirs can look forward to some reasonably strong cow slaughterings this autumn, the figures also suggest that there could be an increase in the number of prime cattle killed this backend. The number of clean cattle two years old and over destined for slaughter on farms in June was the highest for five years.

However, coming after that, the picture for local abattoir owners is less certain, with the number of clean cattle for slaughter on farms in June, aged one to two years, the lowest recorded since the figures were first compiled in 1981. These cattle would normally be expected to be killed in 2015. In the longer term, a fundamental change in the profitability of beef production is required to arrest the slide in numbers.

Sheep

Similar trends to the suckler beef industry are seen in the local sheep flock, with the number of breeding ewes on farms in June at a five-year low of 889,700. The flock is now a long way short of the peaks seen during the time of Sheep Annual Premium, when there were upwards of 1.4m breeding ewes in NI. Both the sheep flock and suckler cow numbers are fast heading towards the numbers seen in the time before headage-based subsidy (800,000 ewes and 220,000 suckler cows).

Pigs and poultry

The number of sows and gilts in pig on farms in June 2014 was up 3% to 43,900. The breeding herd is now at its largest since the industry crashed at the end of the 1990s, although it remains concentrated in the hands of a small number of large producers.

Similar trends are also seen in the number of laying birds, which are up 17% to 2.85m, and the highest numbers recorded since the mid-1990s.

The number of broilers and other table birds on farm in June at 13.4m were unchanged from the previous year.

Crops

The area of crops in NI is down by 2% to 50,800ha, driven mainly by a 14% reduction in the area of spring barley, which was down to 17,700ha.

However, the area of winter barley is up by 23% to 6,500ha, wheat is up 8% to 8,600ha and forage maize is up 300ha to 1,900ha. A total of 4,200ha were planted in potatoes, down slightly on last year.

Coming in 2015 is the new system of CAP reform, which is likely to be a new external factor impacting on the area of crops grown in NI.