The United Nations (UN) 17 sustainable development goals (STG) have been in place since 2018 and are the guiding stars for ending poverty and other deprivations parallel to tackling climate change and preserving the world’s oceans and forests.

STG 1 is the elimination of poverty for the world’s citizens followed by SDG 2, which is zero hunger, while climate action comes in as SDG 13.

The point of these and the other 14 goals is that they are not standalone but interlinked with each needing to be achieved rather than some being delivered at the expense of others.

Food production and demand

The UN’s Food and Drink Organisation annually updates the global food requirement for the decade ahead and where it will be produced and consumed.

Global demand for fresh dairy products is forecast to increase from 436.4m tonnes in 2021 to 530.9m tonnes by 2030.

Growth will be much lower in developed countries, increasing by 7m to 140.6m tonnes whereas in developing countries, consumption is forecast to increase 294.9m tonnes to 390.4m tonnes.

Increased butter demand shows a similar pattern, while growth in cheese consumption is primarily driven by developed countries.

It is a similar picture with meat production and consumption for the remainder of this decade.

Production is forecast to expand to reach 374m tonnes by 2030, with herd and flock expansion concentrated in North and South American countries as well as China.

Global meat consumption is forecast to grow 14% from the 2018 to 2020 base with poultry meat consumption increasing by the most at 17.8%.

Sheepmeat is forecast to grow by 15.7%, followed by pigmeat on 13.9% and beef with the lowest growth on 5.1%.

Meat consumption

Looking specifically at the demand for extra volume from the ruminant livestock sector, global beef and veal consumption is forecast to increase from 70.1m tonnes in 2021 to 74.4m tonnes by 2030, an extra 4.3m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (cwe).

Less than 400,000t of this extra demand will come from the developed world as per-capita beef consumption has peaked and is at best stable, if not declining slightly.

Where the real growth will be is in the developing world, particularly the rapidly developing Asian economies that have historically low beef consumption.

Demand from these markets is forecast by the FAO at being almost 4m tonnes or a 10% increase by 2030.

It is a similar trend with sheepmeat. Overall global consumption is forecast to increase from 16.2m tonnes to 18.4m tonnes but as with beef, consumption in developed counties has reached its peak and there will be a negligible amount of growth over the remainder of this decade.

However, this will be more than made up for in developing countries where consumption is forecast to increase from 13.5m tonnes to 15.5m tonnes.

Demand for pigmeat is forecast to increase by 14.4m tonnes globally with poultry meat demand rising most of all, with an increase of 18.5m tonnes globally. Interestingly, poultry meat is the only meat that shows significant increase in consumer demand from developed countries.

Comment

At this week’s debate in the Council of Agricultural ministers, the focus continues to be on the place of Europe setting the global standard for sustainability in food production with a nod towards making this part of the terms for trade.

At no point did the requirement for increased production get a proper debate and that remains the key element that is missing from the Farm to Fork strategy. Increasing global population and the UN ambition to eliminate poverty and hunger means that ways of sustainably increasing food production need to have joint priority with measures that limit the environmental impact.

If the world adopts the EU strategy of prioritising reductions in emissions over production, then food cost has to increase which may have no impact in the developed world but it will increase food insecurity in poorer countries.

The debate has to move from prioritising climate over production to one where both have equal priority.