A new report from the Society of Irish Foresters (SIF) demonstrates how a proper policy framework around the Climate Action Plan could deliver economic and environmental sustainability. The climate plan identifies afforestation as “the single largest land-based climate change mitigation measure available to Ireland”. But according to the SIF report, there is a total lack of innovative measures to increase afforestation.

The climate plan’s approach to forestry is dismissed by SIF. Instead, it proposes an afforestation scheme that will leverage the carbon value sequestered by forests and use this to reward and incentivise farmers to plant some of their farms. A critical first step is to establish a forest carbon code (FCC) for Ireland along the lines of the UK’s Woodland Carbon Code.

An FCC would provide a carbon trading platform where farmers could sell carbon to the State or the voluntary markets. The report puts a value on carbon based on the Government shadow price of €32/t, which would provide a potential value of the carbon sequestered at €7,910/ha. This is a conservative estimate as the Government strategy is to increase the shadow price of carbon to €100/t by 2030 and €265/t by 2050.

Carbon values of this scale are more than sufficient to incentivise farmers to afforest areas over 10,000 ha/per annum. The impact on agricultural production is unlikely to be significant, based on previous experience where marginal areas of farms have been planted and livestock units have been retained.

The implementation of the SIF report would require a radical approach and a change to existing structures. Business as usual is not an option. The report recommends that the promotion of increased planting and a carbon code be carried out by an independent forestry development agency. Forestry is the only natural resource without the support of such a statutory body.

Nitrogen supply issues

Farmers will be at the front line of soaring nitrogen prices and a lack of availability. But consumers will quickly become exposed in terms of food prices and availability. It is a highly dangerous scenario, in part created by policy failure in the EU to ensure a diversified and secure energy market – as evidenced by the fact that Russia controls 40% of EU natural gas imports. While political attention may be focused on protecting gas supplies for domestic use, policymakers must face reality: cutting off nitrogen supply to farmers is in effect cutting off future food supply to consumers. A political response proportionate to the threat is required quickly.

CAP modelling

Department of Agriculture figures produced this week in relation to the winners and losers from 100% convergence only serve to further highlight the extent to which agriculture policy appears to be shaped by a popularity contest rather than any vision for the sector.

It is unfortunate that the Department continues to refuse to provide the same level of modelling as to the impact of CAP policy on the economic viability of the various sectors. This is despite reassurances from Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue that this modelling would be provided during our Around the Editor’s Table interview on 21 September.