The ongoing debate in Brussels about the next CAP may be of just passing interest to Scottish farmers, but it is a template of what lies ahead in shaping a policy for Scottish agriculture within the UK.

How EU agriculture policy is shaped

The most notable feature of any CAP reform discussion is just how long it can take. In the case of CAP 2020, the debate formally started at the beginning of 2017 with the launch of a public consultation.

The findings of this were presented in Brussels in July at an open forum, where there was a further opportunity for participants to table their views.

From this the Commissioner for Agriculture set about preparing his communication or formal outline proposals, which were launched for further debate in Brussels at the end of November.

The Commissioner is now doing the rounds of EU member states in a community dialogue, elaborating on his proposals and inviting contributions as he goes.

Parallel to this is the debate about money and budget, which is further complicated this time round by the departure of the UK and resultant gap in finances.

The Commissioner with responsibility for the budget will bring a draft budget to the Commission in May and it will then begin the approval process.

It is only when the budget is agreed for the following seven years, as is the case in Brussels, that negotiations on the CAP will pick up pace.

In the latter part of 2018, negotiations will begin between the EU institutions .

The present Commission will have completed its five-year term in November 2019, so it is unlikely that the CAP reform scheduled for 2020 will be finished on Commissioner Hogan’s watch.

Scottish and UK agricultural policy

The most interesting element of the CAP negotiations in formulation of a new UK policy is the time required and the variation of interest groups that have to be accommodated. As any expenditure will involve tax payers’ money, the entire community will have its say on what it expects in return for its expenditure.

The NFU and NFUS have had policy positions and papers produced over the past year with an emphasis on continued access to EU markets and migrant labour.

From a Government policy perspective, Defra Secretary Michael Gove has emphasised that any future agriculture support would be environment-based.

The impression is that it will be targeted towards upland farmers, with more of a focus on countryside management than productive agriculture.

Scotland within the UK

There is also a debate to take place on how much of agriculture policy will be devolved to the UK regions.

No doubt – just as has always been the case with CAP – there will be a central framework and probably a budget allocation, but there is no indication of just what policy-making powers will be devolved to Edinburgh and the other regions of the UK.

Funding is also an issue. The money is safeguarded for the duration of this Parliament until 2022, thereafter we can expect that farming will have to join the scramble with health, education and the other users of Government resources to secure financial support.

Farming will face a challenge to convince Government of the need to fund an agriculture policy. No doubt other models around the world – particularly the insurance models in place in the USA and Canada – will receive consideration.

The bottom line is that shaping a new policy will take time at regional and national level. The process needs to begin in a meaningful way so that by the time 2022 arrives a policy is in place that ensures farmers are not faced with a cliff-edge ending of support.