There is much interest as to the likely carryover of hoggets into the new year, which is not surprising given the uncertainty around the economics of finishing lambs.

There are two weeks of kill data outstanding but it is pretty certain that the high carryover of hoggets carried forward in to 2022 (see Table 1) is likely to be repeated again in 2023.

While the dynamics of supply and demand has a significant influence on farmgate prices during the drafting period for main-season lambs, it is sometimes less influential in the early part of the year.

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For example, there was an expectation at the start of 2021 that hogget prices would excel on the back of tighter supplies from the turn of the year. While prices exceeded €7.50/kg for a short period in April and May the trade in 2022 was more balanced despite 200,000 head more hoggets being slaughtered and total throughput surpassing 900,000 head.

With 55,839 fewer lambs slaughtered up until week 50 of 2022, it is clear that there is potential for high hogget throughput again in 2023. As touched on above, farmgate prices will have a large influence on whether or not the kill is boosted from more ewe hoggets.

Getting back to this week’s trade, base quotes are unchanged with the two Irish Country Meats plants quoting a base of €6.30/kg plus a 10c/kg bonus with Kildare Chilling on a base of €6.40/kg plus 10c/kg. Individual sellers continue to trade lambs from €6.45/kg to €6.55/kg, with sellers and groups trading from €6.60/kg to €6.65/kg and top prices including conformation bonuses rising 5c/kg to 15c/kg higher.

Ewe quotes are similar, averaging around €3.20/kg. Prices range from €3.10/kg to €3.30/kg, with significant variation between plants. Top prices for ewes slaughtered to meet niche market demand range from €3.40/kg to €3.55/kg on average.

Prices in Northern Ireland are also largely unchanged, with base quotes in the region of £5.35/kg (€6.08/kg) and prices paid to regular sellers rising to £5.45/kg to £5.55/kg (€6.19/kg to €6.31/kg).