It’s nearly back to school time for the nation’s children, and back to work for the country’s rejuvenated and tanned politicians.

One can only hope that Charlie McConalogue enjoyed his break because he is certainly facing a packed curriculum for the year ahead.

Buoyant commodity prices have arguably given the minister a relatively smooth run in Agriculture House to date.

This is despite the profound changes which will certainly flow from the decisions signed off by the Donegal politician in recent months.

Indeed, the manner in which the minister floated through the Tullamore Show last Sunday reinforced The Dealer’s contention that nothing really matters to farmers apart from reasonable weather and decent prices.

However, there are a number of critical issues which have not been put to bed as yet, and have the potential to cause the minister serious difficulties in the months ahead.

Climate

Climate and emissions is obviously the most pressing problem for the Government’s survival.

Minister McConalogue has played a very clever game in suggesting that any cuts in stock numbers at farm level will be voluntary, while at the same time leaving the nitrates to do the dirty work on this front.

Some industry sources have suggested that the farm sector will be lucky to hit an 18% reduction in emissions, rather than the 25% required, without a serious cut in animal numbers.

Is the Nitrates Directive effectively the Trojan horse to deliver these cuts in the dairy sector, while increased organic scheme funding will focus on a reduction in suckler numbers, The Dealer wonders?

CAP

The implications of the CAP changes have yet to be realised by many intensive farmers in the south and east of the country. The Dealer hears that the Department has commissioned an economic assessment of the new CAP, which details the financial implications for the various farming enterprises of the changed regime.

However, the report is currently being sat on by the minister and his senior officials. Obviously, it makes for interesting reading.

Budget

The budget is the most immediate post-holiday concern for the minister and his team. McConalogue will claim that he has delivered on this front over the past 12 months. He can justifiably point to the Tillage Incentive Scheme, the Fodder Scheme and the rollover of the Straw Incorporation Scheme as wins for farmers. However, with the hike in input prices likely to intensify this winter, he will need to pull a few more rabbits out of the hat in the forthcoming budget.

There is little doubt but that Charlie McConalogue is a canny political operator. An old acquaintance of The Dealer likened his national CAP tour to that of the Pied Piper, with the farm organisations traipsing around the country after him and effectively dancing to his tune.

The music must end at some stage, but the minister will hope that it lasts for another year at least.