The programme for government includes a number of forestry actions to deliver “an ambitious afforestation plan”. It sidesteps a specific annual afforestation target, probably due to mixed messages and targets from the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine in recent years.

The Department’s 2014 forestry strategy “Forests products and people” focused on increasing “the level of annual afforestation to 15,000ha”. The last government decided on 8,000ha, while FoodWise 2025 committed to “increasing annual afforestation to 15,000ha from 2021”.

Last year’s Mackinnon Review summed up these inconsistencies: “The [Department] report on the Afforestation Grant and Premium Scheme 2014 – 2020 (March 2015) refers to establishing 10,000ha of new forests and woodlands per annum (subject to the availability of funds and land) in Ireland, while the Mid Term Review of the Forestry Programme 2014 -2020 refers to a target of 6,000ha in 2015. The now widely accepted target of 8,000ha is not to be found in a policy statement on forestry but in the Climate Action Plan (June 2019).”

The bulk of the land identified by COFORD comprises 105,006ha of rough grassland and 179,000ha of unenclosed land without environmental restrictions

The programme for government commits to “undertake a national land use review”, but might first examine the findings of the Department-commissioned Land Availability for Afforestation report, compiled by COFORD in 2016. It identified an additional half-million hectares of land suitable for forestry.

The bulk of the land identified by COFORD comprises 105,006ha of rough grassland and 179,000ha of unenclosed land without environmental restrictions.

Since then, other opportunities for planting have been discussed, including small-scale broadleaf planting on better-quality land – wet areas, field corners, etc – as well as some upland and acid-designated areas where planting birch and Scots pine could apply in programmes similar to the restoration of the Caledonian Forest in Scotland.

In all, 560,000ha of suitable land is available for afforestation without negatively affecting agricultural output (Table 1).

Transferring 500,000ha as proposed by the COFORD report has economic and climate change benefits but the timescale to achieve “forest cover of 18% by mid-century” is unrealistic. A land use shift of this magnitude within three decades could prove to be socially detrimental, especially as the forestry programme has become geographically lopsided in recent years.

Rural development

A 10,000ha annual planting programme until 2050 would fulfil all the criteria for sustainable forest management and rural development. This would require a transfer of 300,000ha of land to forestry, amounting to 4% of all land or 8% of all agricultural – mainly marginal – land.

This equates to a transfer of 0.14% of the land area to forestry annually, which would allow forestry to grow organically if spread over a wider range of counties compared with recent planting programmes.

Correcting the geographical imbalance in the planting programme is key to achieving a viable level of afforestation. This imbalance has been exacerbated since the so-called 20% rule, was introduced in 2012 without consultation. This has effectively banned afforestation on unenclosed land or grant premium category one (GPC 1) because the rule permits only a maximum planting area of 20% unenclosed land in any one licence application.

As a result, planting GPC1 land has fallen to less than 5% of total afforestation. Foresters rarely apply for grant aid on unenclosed land now because licences are unlikely to be approved by the Forest Service inspectorate. Low grant aid and annual premia for GPC1 sites are other disincentives.

Grants at €2,740/ha compare unfavourable with €3,705/ha to €6,220/ha for other GPCs, while annual premia at €190/ha fall well short of other GPCs (€450/ha to €680/ha).

Vegetation analysis is now the preferred indicator in assessing forest soil fertility on GPC1 sites, but this has made little practical difference.

As a result, a significant land bank remains precluded from the afforestation programme, especially in counties with available unenclosed land including Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Tipperary where planting has fallen dramatically and Donegal where it has totally collapsed.

Conversely, the 20% rule also ensures that afforestation will continue to concentrate on counties such as Roscommon, Leitrim, Cavan and Sligo where unenclosed land is not a major issue.