EU beef imports are projected to increase by 5% for 2026, notably due to a front-loading of Brazilian beef supplies, the European Commission has said.
Brazilian beef has been banned from entering the EU market since 3 September of this year, with the increase in shipments occurring before the bloc banned the product.
In its autumn outlook for the farming sector, it said that EU beef production is forecast to decline by 2.2% on 2025 levels.
It attributed the fall to reflecting continued herd adjustments and structural pressures in the sector.
“Livestock producers faced a particularly difficult summer as heat and drought reduced grassland productivity and increased feed costs.
"Farmers also had to spend more on mitigation measures, including cooling systems and water management, raising overall production costs,” the Commission said.
While exports are expected to fall by 2%, it said that the reopening of the Turkish market has provided some support, with shipments to Turkey rising by 53% in 2026.
The sheep and goat sector remains under pressure the Commission warned, with production projected to decline by 4.4% year on year.
“Live exports are expected to fall by 3%, while meat exports could increase by 5%, supported by demand from Algeria and the United Kingdom. Disease-related constraints in Romania continue to weigh on the sector,” it advised.
Pigs and poultry
EU pigmeat production is expected to increase marginally, by 0.5% year on year.
“Export prospects remain mixed: total exports are projected to decline by 0.5%, as a sharp reduction in sales to China (-32%) is only partly offset by strong growth in exports to South Korea (+53%).
“African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks are also affecting trade patterns and market confidence,” the Commission added.
Meanwhile, the poultry sector remains the strongest performer among meat categories, with production projected to rise by 3.3% year on year.
“Imports are set to grow by 17.1%, driven mainly by increased shipments from Brazil (+55%) and Ukraine (+23%). Exports are expected to increase more modestly, by 1%.
"The sector continues to face sanitary and trade-related uncertainty linked to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and associated restrictions,” it added.
