Rising milk yields from shrinking dairy herds are expected to slow the EU’s milk output growth trend to a snail’s pace by 2035. The latest EU agricultural outlook report expects milk output growth to average just 0.1% per year out to 2035, which is equivalent to one-twentieth of the forecast global rate of milk output growth. The report foresees a 1.1% annual reduction in the EU’s dairy cow population over the next 10 years, which is the same rate it had been declining across the EU in the past decade.

This would leave 2m fewer cows in dairy herds in 2035 than there are now but report mentions that “stricter national environmental policies” in countries like Ireland or the Netherlands could leave a bigger gap.

A slowing of per cow yield gains to 1.2% per year, just over half of the past 10 years’ yield increases, will counter the slump in cow numbers and leave overall milk output increasing at a modest 0.1%.

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The equivalent report released one year ago foreseen a steeper decline in EU cow numbers leading to a net decline in dairy output at EU-level.

The latest outlook report signals a “favourable” supply-demand dynamic for dairy farmers out to 2035 amid a growing global appetite for dairy products, despite many importing regions’ renewed focus on increasing their own domestic capacity for food security reasons. It also warns that there will remain “significant uncertainty” on input cost movement over the coming decade and flags recent outbreaks of animal diseases like bluetongue as well as foot and mouth disease on the continent as threats that hang over its predictions.