EU net cereal exports are set to grow by “almost 40%” over the year from June 2022 on the back of lower Ukrainian imports, higher EU grain production and a drop in the EU’s domestic demand for feed, a short-term outlook for agricultural markets released by the European Commission suggests.

The Commission report states that there is no indication that the supply of food products, such as meat, dairy and cereals, would be threatened by the disruptions to global agri-food markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine due to EU self-sufficiency in these areas.

Production of beef and lamb is expected to drop across the EU this year, with “purchased feed-intensive production models” faring worse than more extensive production systems.

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Tillage

Exports of grain are expected to rise 30% from summer 2022 to summer 2023, with grain imports expected to drop by some 42% over the same period, when compared with the five-year average of these figures.

These two changes will combine to deliver an “almost 40%” rise in net exports, according to the report.

This assumption was based on a favourable harvest 2022, as well as a drop in feed demand from the livestock sector and lower biofuel inclusion rates under revised EU energy policy.

Data in the report suggests that the area of spring wheat planted across the EU is up 12%, while EU spring barley plantings have increased over 8% from 2021’s levels.

Dairy

High input costs are “squeezing” dairy farm margins, the report says, with milk supplies likely to remain tight for the first half of this year at least.

In 2021, each month saw an increase in dairy prices, with December’s milk prices on average 18% higher than the supplies delivered in January, according to the European Commission.

Milk deliveries dropped 0.4%, with Ireland one of the few countries to buck the trend, upping milk volume by 5.5% in 2021.

EU consumer prices were up 7% for whole milk and 5.3% for cheese in February 2022 compared with 12 months previous.

Milk deliveries dropped 0.4%, with Ireland one of the few countries to buck the trend, upping milk volume by 5.5% in 2021.

Beef

The production of beef across the EU is set to drop marginally over 2022, the report says.

The EU suckler herd declined by 245,000 cows but the numbers of male cattle for slaughter from either the beef or dairy herds rose.

Additional slaughterings may be seen across the EU this year, the report indicated, as high input costs put pressure on the costs of keeping cattle, especially on “intensive beef farms”.

Sheep

EU numbers of sheep and goats are at their lowest since 1990, with the Commission forecasting a further drop in the coming months.

The higher number of slaughterings pushed sheep and goat meat production up 3% in 2021.

A decline in the export of sheep meat to the UK was not overcome by a higher demand in the Middle East in 2021.

A smaller EU sheep flock is predicted to reduce 2022’s production of sheep meat, despite higher prices, with the effect to be seen in the flocks dependent on purchased feed.

Pigs

The report’s section on pigs acknowledges the delivery of “some good news” to the sector as EU prices “strongly increased in the past weeks”.

Irish prices have yet to see this bounce, with quotes remaining between €1.45/kg and €1.50/kg, now approximately 40c/kg behind the EU average pig meat price.

Pigmeat production across the EU is set to decrease as a result of high feed and energy prices, as well as the “lasting effects” of African Swine Fever impacting production in some member states.

Poultry

The average price paid for a broiler across the EU increased 26% in mid-March 2022 when compared with 12 months previous, according to the Commission’s report.

The report states that this year in the poultry sector, “high prices compensate high costs so far”.

Poultry production is set to increase marginally over 2022, although this rise will not be enough to return the sector to the point where it was in 2019.