The prospects for beef exports outside the EU are “bleak” and will push prices down for the coming months, the European Commission has warned in its short-term agricultural outlook.

Brazil has recovered from last year’s scandal, achieving a 25% increase in beef exports in the first four months of 2018.

Meanwhile, EU beef exports were 15% down, with only Turkey and Israel showing promise. A 6% drop is expected for this year as a whole.

Live exports, too, have peaked, “mainly due to the expected decline in EU net production and competition from other players”. EU beef prices are now under “downward pressure”. Lamb markets, too, will be sluggish, with Ireland driving extra European production while exports shrink.

Harvest

As combines roll across Europe, the Commission has confirmed predictions of a smaller harvest. This year will see a 2.5% drop in cereals production, but large stocks will keep prices down. On dairy markets, strong demand should continue to boost butter and SMP prices and the Commission expects EU milk prices to rise this year.

Meanwhile, The FAO and OECD have warned agricultural commodity prices would remain low for the coming decade because of “declining population growth, flat levels of per-capita consumption for staple foods and slowing demand growth for meat products”. However, India and China will continue to drive over 20% growth in global dairy consumption in the next 10 years.