One of the big global growth headwinds in the wake of the pandemic was the high cost of moving stuff around the planet. Those costs have been dropping rapidly this year.

In the US, the transport component of the Logistics Managers’ Index plunged from 89.7 points in March to 44.5 points in September, pushing the reading below the breakeven level for providers.

The drop has been accompanied by an increase in capacity, which does point to the market becoming more balanced.

However it may not all be good news from supply chains. The World Trade Organisation is predicting a sharp slowdown in trade growth. The IMF also this week downgraded its forecast for 2023. Managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the “risks of a recession are rising.”

The fall in transport costs is good news, especially for the Irish agriculture sector. However, if the fall is due to a drop in demand driven by recession fears, then we might have to take a large share of cloud with this silver lining.