International wheat futures strengthened last week, especially in the US, in response to the weak dollar, funds being short and potential weather threats in the US, South Africa and Argentina.

The combination of these factors has resulted in more buyers than sellers – hence the rise in prices. Whether this will hold or not is a different matter. Prices for Russian wheat have also increased, as its currency strengthened somewhat on the back of stronger oil prices. US maize exports also increased in recent weeks, helped by currency.

So, for the first time in a few weeks, there is an upward trend in nearby prices, but unfortunately this is not reflected in the local physical markets, where prices remain broadly similar. UK prices have weakened on the back of sterling.

The dry weather in Argentina has also helped Chicago soya bean prices, but this did not extend to oilseed rape where EU prices decreased, partly in response to the strong euro.

Native prices remain flat, due mainly to the virtual absence of physical trading. But neither is there forward selling, so at some point it will be necessary to buy. The question is will buyers or sellers have to move first?

Spot prices remain either side of €175/t for wheat and barley, with closer to €176/t for May.

There remains little interest in new-crop grain, with €170 to €172/t suggested for wheat and €165/t for barley.

UK delivered prices were generally down last week, with currency playing a role. Ex-farm prices were up fractionally there at £139.60 for feed wheat and £127.50 for feed barley.