Grain prices hit €200/t as sentiment surges

A surge in international grain prices at the end of last week has added €10/t to grain prices here.

If these price levels hold, they could result in a green price of around €200/t for barley and up to €215/t for wheat after this harvest.

Futures prices increased by €20/t at the end of last week following a US report that predicted lower global wheat production.

But futures markets (MATIF) are highly driven by news and sentiment and do not represent a real price for growers unless they lock in to that market. They often overreact to unexpected news, resulting in a consequential fall shortly after.

This happened this week, with MATIF December wheat futures falling back from €254.25/t last Friday evening to €241.50/t on Wednesday morning.

However, global grain production is now tighter than had been predicted and this will support higher prices.

High US maize yields could change this sentiment, but recent crop inspections there have downgraded crop condition scores making this unlikely.

Grain moisture levels are back up either side of 20%

Meanwhile, harvesting continues in most areas but progress is being disrupted by showery conditions and mediocre drying.

Grain moisture levels are back up either side of 20% and some growers are cutting feed grains at high moistures just to get fields cleared.

Spring barley yields appear to have slipped from the highs above 3.5t/ac back to 3.0t/ac and below. But with this comes an increase in the protein content of malting barley and so far we hear no reports of major quality or sprouting issues that are causing widespread rejection.

Moisture levels are a concern, however, and straw breakdown is increasing the urgency to get crops cut.

Winter wheat yields remain largely good and appear to be hitting either side of 4.5t/ac at around 20% moisture. There are also some sub-4t/ac crops about but grain quality is good.