International grain futures prices would appear to have weathered the recent weak patch, but the gap between nearby and new-crop prices is lessening, as new-crop continues to sneak up while old-crop weakens.

Maize continues to be the main driver of optimism as carryover stock levels continue to decrease in the face of high current demand.

Last Friday’s supply and demand report in the US saw maize stocks reduced to their lowest level since 2013/14. This followed an increase in predicted consumption and export levels.

This caused Chicago maize futures to rise to an almost eight-year high. However, the same report was bearish for wheat due to the predicted rise in Russian production.

Chinese demand

Markets were also influenced by China’s confirmation that its maize import forecast for 2020/21 was more than double its previous estimate.

Last month, its ministry of agriculture forecast 10Mt of maize imports – this is now estimated at 22Mt and the USDA had already estimated full season imports by China at 24Mt.

Wheat pressures

The wheat market had good and bad news last week, but the overall impact was more negative than positive.

Dryness is influencing spring wheat planting in the US, with over one third of land low in moisture, versus 8% at the same time last year.

And its winter wheat crop condition report indicated that things are currently less good than this time last year.

While the US information was generally favourable to price, Sovecon increased Russia’s wheat production for next harvest to 80.7Mt. This is up 1.4Mt from its previous estimate due to improved growing conditions in the south.

On balance, wheat fundamentals suggest less scope for optimism than maize, but the latter is expected to continue to offer price support to wheat.

Native prices

Local prices are slightly stronger this week, especially new crop. While old-crop is scarce and theoretically stronger, an ongoing lack of demand is weakening confidence somewhat in nearby price levels.

Nearby wheat price is back up around €242/t and barley in the €212 to €215/t bracket, depending on the day and the hour.

Nearby maize ex-port is at €250/t this week, with new-crop maize around €220/t. November wheat is now put at €205/t, with barley around €195/t.

In a highly volatile oil crop market, new-crop oilseed rape is jumping between €420 and €440/t, depending on the day.