The recent end to milk collections from Tomlinson’s dairy and the mothballing of Arla’s Llandyrnog site last year means that half of Welsh milk is to be processed in England.

According to the AHDB, Welsh milk production is estimated to have reached 1,971m litres in 2018/19, an increase of 123m litres (7%) since 2016/17.

Up until now, the continual investment and expansion of a few larger processing sites has allowed all this extra milk to be processed in the country.

Recent closures

However, recent closures mean that capacity is now estimated at just 956m litres per year.

The AHDB is reporting that a modest increase in milk production between now and next year would leave the Welsh milk surplus at 1,055m litres per year, more than half the amount collected off farms.

One glimmer of hope is the potential opening of a new cheese factory in north Wales in the coming year, but that may only be enough to partially offset recent processing losses.