The discussion took place a the Taste of Cavan festival between Teagasc director Gerry Boyle, IFA president Joe Healy, independent MEP Marian Harkin, Fine Gael senator Joe O’Reilly, Fianna Fáil TD Brendan Smith and Charles Bourns, a British farmer and poultry chair of the EU-wide farm organisation COPA.

Since UK voters chose to exit the European Union more than one month ago, speculation has been rife as to when London would trigger article 50 of the EU treaty to leave the union, and how long the ensuing negotiations would last.

Bourns said that new British Prime Minister “has just created two Brexit ministries and they are still recruiting – she is not yet in a position to negotiate”.

Listen to an interview with Charles Bourns in our podcast below:

Maybe it will be Brexit light

Harkin welcomed the slow pace of the process, reporting that British representatives at the European Parliament were now taking a less radical view of their departure from the EU than immediately after the vote. “Maybe Brexit won’t be what it was expected to be,” she said. “Maybe it will be Brexit light. The implications are huge and they are only beginning to be felt,” she added, comparing recent difficulties experienced by the Bank of England in placing bonds with the credit crisis that hit Ireland after the 2008 financial crash.

Norwegian-type agreement

O’Reilly echoed a similar view and said: “The longer it goes on, the better. The desire to leave will decrease with every passing day.”

This could bring the UK closer to negotiating a Norwegian-type agreement with the EU, which would maintain free trade and equivalence of standards between the two sides, which Healy said was the most important outcome to secure for Irish agri-food exports.

Listen to an interview with Joe Healy in our podcast below:

Let’s get on with it

Speaking from the audience, Lakeland Dairies chief executive Michael Hanley called for a prompt resolution. “A decision has been made, let’s get on with it, let’s use the structures of the State to get the best possible deal and let’s take the uncertainty out of it,” he said. “Let’s put our best team in the field. We’ll look after our farmers the best we can in the meantime,” he added.

Smith pointed out that the proposed EU-Canada trade deal CETA had taken seven years to negotiate. “We don’t have seven years,” he said.

Recession

Boyle, too, stressed that “uncertainty has a very high impact on investment”. He warned that if the UK entered a recession, Ireland would suffer 30% of every GDP point lost by our neighbour.

Quick or slow, he said that all government agencies now had to work together to mitigate the effect of Brexit. “There will be negative impacts, take that for granted,” he said. “Let’s try to minimise it.”

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