A radical restructuring of Irish agriculture could help the country achieve climate neutrality by 2050, while at the same time increasing protein and renewable energy production.

However, the approach would require a major winding down of the country’s beef herd to just 165,000 suckler cows – from the current 750,000 – the rewetting of 90% of drained peatlands and heavy organic soils and a massive ramping up of forestry cover.

The Unlocking Ireland’s Bioeconomy: A 2050 National Strategic Foresight Report, which was launched this week, expands on one of the options identified in the recent Land Use Review.

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Developed through the InformBio research project – which is led by Munster Technological University in partnership with the University of Galway, Teagasc and the Central Statistics Office – the report compares a bioeconomy-focused pathway with a business-as-usual scenario for Ireland’s agriculture, forestry and other land-use sectors.

Herd retirement scheme

The bioeconomy-focused pathway proposes the introduction of a herd retirement scheme to drive suckler cow destocking and a gradual switch to dairy beef over the next two decades.

The report argues that the reduction in suckler numbers would free up land for rewetting, afforestation and the growing of protein crops, as well as facilitating the redirection of grass and clover crops to feed bio-refineries.

The report also proposes:

  • That forestry plantings should be increased to 16,000ha per year.
  • That forestry felling levels should be curtailed to facilitate an increase in total forest area by 350,000ha by 2050.
  • That 100,000ha of protein crops such as peas and beans should be grown each year.
  • That 180,000ha of grass and clover be grown for bio-refineries.

    • The report claims that dairy cow numbers should ideally peak at around 1.65m head.

    But it argues that a 30% increase in dairy yields by mid-century – allied to an increased use of dairy beef – would mean that total animal protein production would hold close to current levels, despite the 80% reduction in the suckler herd.

    Meanwhile, crop protein production should increase significantly if the targets on protein crop plantings are met.

    “Total protein output increases by 47%, through increased milk and crop protein and protein produced from grass through biorefineries, while domestic bioenergy production increases almost five-fold,” the report calculates.

    The proteins extracted from the refining of grass and clover would reduce Ireland’s dependence on imported proteins sources such as soya.

    Climate neutrality

    Under the current business-as-usual model, net emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use are projected to rise to almost 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, the report points out.

    By contrast, the bioeconomy pathway achieves climate neutrality through a combination of emissions reductions, changes in land use and carbon removals, it contends.

    “This research looks at the transition as a whole rather than considering individual technologies in isolation. The findings show that a circular bioeconomy can perform strongly across climate, environmental, production and resilience measures,” according to David Styles, professor in agricultural sustainability at University of Galway.

    “Business as usual would leave agriculture, forestry and land use increasingly exposed to regulatory, market, trade and climate risks. Diversifying the bioeconomy provides a route towards climate neutrality, while continuing to provide the food, energy and materials society needs,” he added.