Egyptian granular urea prices jumped by over $100/t (€98/t) in the past week. Prices jumped from $650/t (€641/t) at the start of last week to $765/t (€754/t) opening this week on the back of surging European gas prices.
Analysts report that there were no wholesale buyers for urea last Monday at $650/t (€641/t), with the market taking off when prices breached $700/t (€690/t).
At current EU gas prices, Irish Farmers Journal modelling indicates that urea manufacturing costs in Europe are approximately €1,500/t. The concern is now of possible production curtailments in the EU.
EU gas prices are expected to remain volatile and at higher levels given restricted supply. In the potash market, DAP and MOP prices have generally been trending downwards over the past couple of months, although with wide regional variation.
The CRU Group puts northwestern European MOP prices at €875/t. According to Humphrey Knight, analyst, CRU Group, there is more supply entering the market than demand growth can handle. This is ultimately placing downward pressure on prices.