While the work of the Government and the diplomatic corps in keeping Irish issues centre stage in Brexit negotiations should be acknowledged, so too should the fact that the threat has not gone away. The deal – or form of words – reached last week merely gives the green light for the real negotiating process to begin. Ensuring the Irish challenges remain centre stage during this process will be every bit as important. In the case of Irish agriculture, there are basically three key parameters that the Government needs to ensure are delivered upon:

  • Tariff-free access.
  • Prevention of non-tariff barriers.
  • Protecting the value of the UK market.

    • While much of the focus has been around tariffs, perhaps the most challenging of the three will be protecting the value of the UK market. It will be of little benefit to Irish agriculture to have unrestricted access to a UK market where the value has been eroded by cheap imports produced to lower standards.

    Achieving this goal will not be straightforward as it could inhibit the UK’s potential to strike third-country deals when out of the EU.

    Meanwhile, in its report this week, the ESRI highlights the extent to which the Irish economy is exposed to a slowdown in the UK. It is generally accepted that a 1% GDP shift in the UK affects the Irish economy by 0.3%. While a growth forecast of 4% for next year is positive, the Government is right to maintain prudence in the face of future challenges.