Estimates of 2014 maize production continue to rise, but so do prices. The HGCA reports that the EU is set to export more barley than was forecast earlier, with China and the US importing. The report suggests that the unexpected Chinese demand is arising from difficulties in securing imports of US maize. The EU is also set to export additional wheat, with currency being an important factor. The suggested ban on exports from Russia generated what seems to have been an overreaction in the markets earlier this week.

The current market sentiment is largely bearish for 2015, with the International Grains Council predicting a 1% increase in wheat planting globally. However, there is also growing concern about the impact of recent weather conditions in Russia and Ukraine. The HGCA suggests real damage to winter barley in the Ukraine, where there was less barley planted anyway. Lower production there could help EU barley exports next year.

Two factors in particular have been most influential – the high price of soyabean meal and a general lack of sellers. But the sellers will have to unload at some point and this means that we cannot take the current price trend as continuing in an upward direction. One month ago, €180/t looked a good price for November 2015 wheat. Then that increased by €10/t in recent weeks.

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Irish prices have benefited from this upward trend. Spot wheat to the trade is now either side of €178/t, with barley still either side of €165/t. Offers for next May are about €5/t over spot. Further out, November 2015 wheat is now €187/t, with barley quoted at €173/t. Both of these prices were stronger earlier in the week, when Glanbia offered €189/t for wheat and €175/t for barley. On Tuesday it offered €157/t for green wheat at harvest and €143 for barley.