Grain markets were not looking good this week. French (Matif) wheat prices for December dropped almost €9/t between last Friday evening and Tuesday evening this week from €248/t to €239.25/t.
On Wednesday afternoon (16 August), they were back in the green slightly.
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) in the UK stated that “global wheat markets came under pressure from larger Russian crop forecasts” this week.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for August was published last Friday.
Global wheat supplies are projected down in the report, with reductions in the EU, China and Canada. Global consumption is also reduced in the report.
Corn and soya bean condition improved again this week in the US, with 59% of the corn crop reported to be in good or excellent condition, up 2% from last week.
Looking at reports and tours across the main corn producing regions in the US, there are plenty of underperforming crops, with cobs not filled out, but the US corn crop is still set to be close to record.
The WASDE stated: “Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection and, if realised, would be the second-highest on record behind 2016/17.”
The AHDB has a negative outlook for maize prices for the next few months and this big crop and improved ratings in the US is affecting this.
Low corn prices are generally not good for wheat and barley prices.
Oilseed rape prices have dropped significantly. On Friday, the November French price was at €456.25/t, down from €473.75/t the week before.
On Monday, it fell to €447.25/t and increased to €453.50/t on Tuesday evening (15 August).
Reports suggest that the vegetable oils market was playing into this.
The AHDB reported increases in prices on the Malaysian palm oil futures markets.
At home, there is reported to be little movement of grain, as buyers and sellers are worried about the direction of prices.
Spot wheat has fallen €10/t from last week to approximately €240/t. November prices are slightly lower for native grain.
Meanwhile, new-crop maize has dropped to around €235/t. However, barley is still estimated under this, with a spot price of approximately €225/t and November prices slightly over this.