International grain markets are likely to come under continuing pressure in the coming weeks as the US maize harvest gathers pace. Combines are working in fields across the US at present, with the harvest completion rate expected to reach 15% by the end of this week.

Early reports suggest yields are good, albeit not as good as those forecasted in August by the USDA. However, we are still looking at a record maize crop this season from the US – projected to come in at a massive 380m to 385m tonnes.

Despite weak markets for most of the year, US farmers planted almost 94m acres in maize last spring, which was the highest area planted since 2013 and the third-highest acreage since World War II.

ADVERTISEMENT

In Europe, yields from the French maize harvest are shaping up to be poor after wet weather inhibited planting, while excessive dryness during the growing period has also curbed yields.

However, a bumper crop in Ukraine and potentially Poland may offset the French shortfall in production.

Grain prices are sensitive to harvest pressure now and this will only intensify in the weeks ahead. Earlier this week, US maize prices fell sharply below $3.30/bu as harvest noises dragged markets down.

Native markets continue to be difficult, with few buyers and even fewer sellers who are naturally unwilling to sell below cost. Spot wheat prices have crept up €3 in the last week to €160/t, while spot barley is €10/t less in price. November wheat is slightly higher at €162/t, while the May price is about €166/t. Imported soya prices have fallen €10/t in the last week to €345/t.