It seems likely that global grain output will not be as high in 2017.
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International grain prices continue to react to alternating sentiment but, on balance, they have been somewhat stronger over the past week. Some of the reasons relate to the recent sale of French wheat but there were also rumours of a change to the US biofuels policy which may help demand.
The recent AHDB (HGCA) grain market report indicates that US policy may be changed from a support to the fuel blender to a support for the producer. This would mitigate against imported bioethanol in favour of US crops.
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There are separate factors at work in the wheat market though. Reports of dryness in the US southern plains are helping wheat prices there, as well as the lower planted area. And a recent output comment from Australia suggests a return to trend yields, which suggests an output reduction either side of 8Mt for next harvest.
Nearby oilseed rape futures increased substantially last week from a range of oilseed issues. These included logistical issues in Brazil which prevented transport of soya beans to some ports. But new-crop rape is not benefiting.
Meanwhile, native grain prices remain broadly similar but with a slightly weaker tone. Spot wheat remains at €178/t to €180/t and barley at €163/t to €165/t. May prices are now equivalent to the higher end of spot prices. November wheat remains around €170/t to €172/t with barley at €160/t to €162/t. Earlier this week, Glanbia offered €171/t for wheat and €161/t for barley for November.
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International grain prices continue to react to alternating sentiment but, on balance, they have been somewhat stronger over the past week. Some of the reasons relate to the recent sale of French wheat but there were also rumours of a change to the US biofuels policy which may help demand.
The recent AHDB (HGCA) grain market report indicates that US policy may be changed from a support to the fuel blender to a support for the producer. This would mitigate against imported bioethanol in favour of US crops.
There are separate factors at work in the wheat market though. Reports of dryness in the US southern plains are helping wheat prices there, as well as the lower planted area. And a recent output comment from Australia suggests a return to trend yields, which suggests an output reduction either side of 8Mt for next harvest.
Nearby oilseed rape futures increased substantially last week from a range of oilseed issues. These included logistical issues in Brazil which prevented transport of soya beans to some ports. But new-crop rape is not benefiting.
Meanwhile, native grain prices remain broadly similar but with a slightly weaker tone. Spot wheat remains at €178/t to €180/t and barley at €163/t to €165/t. May prices are now equivalent to the higher end of spot prices. November wheat remains around €170/t to €172/t with barley at €160/t to €162/t. Earlier this week, Glanbia offered €171/t for wheat and €161/t for barley for November.
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