Grain Trends: positive prices but drops as dramatic as gains

Grain markets are generally more positive these days, but remain uncertain and jumpy, meaning it might be no harm to take opportunity when it presents itself.

There was a big jump in recent days, along with falls. For instance, Matif wheat for December climbed to €226/t on Wednesday 29 April. It dropped €4/t the following day.

On Tuesday of this week, it fell to €220/t and, on Wednesday afternoon, was at €216/t. That price is just above levels seen in early March.

Currency and oil prices falling are reported to be playing into this. The war in the Middle East and talks on ending that war are no doubt affecting prices.

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in the UK reported this week that winter cereal conditions have declined following a drier April.

The report said that 75% of winter wheat crops are in good or excellent condition, down from 82% in late March. Winter barley in good or excellent condition had dropped back from 85% in late March to 70% in April.

The April survey placed 81% of winter oats in good or excellent condition, down from 88% in late March.

Winter crops are reported more forward than last year. Varied rainfall has affected crops differently across the country.

Spring planting is generally wrapped up in Britain. However, the AHDB reported a push to get crops planted in Northern Ireland following wet weather. Crop establishment has been uneven due to dry conditions in some places.

Some 38% of corn was planted in the US as of 3 May, some 4% above average, while 33% of soybeans are planted, 10% above average. Just 26% of winter wheat is reported in good condition, back from 44% this time last year, but positively up 1% on last week.

Oilseed rape

French oilseed rape for November dropped big time this week.

On 29 April it hit a high of €524/t. By 4 May, it hit €529.50/t. On Wednesday afternoon, it was back down to €518/t, a drop of €9.75/t from the evening before.

Vegetable oil prices are strong and likely providing support behind the volatility.

The AHDB survey showed oilseed rape crops in much better condition. A massive 84% of crops were in good to excellent condition, up from 59% in 2025.

Native prices

Last week, Dairygold put out green harvest price offers of €205/t for feed wheat, €195/t for feed barley and €480/t for oilseed rape. Dry wheat and barley price offers were €30/t over this.

In Northern Ireland, the AHDB reported spot feed barley at £204.50/t, up £3/t on the previous week, while spot feed wheat was at £207.50/t, up £2/t on the previous week.