Actions by the Russian government have led to increased speculative fund activity in grain markets to increase international prices, but these have not yet spilled over into grain prices here.
International markets livened up early this week following news of interest rate hikes in Russia, plus a range of moves to slow or prevent grain exports. Since the announcement, MATIF December 2015 milling wheat moved from €194.50/t last Friday to €199/t at noon on Wednesday. Chicago wheat and maize took a similar rise.
The main price reaction has come in international and futures markets. The price rises have been mainly driven by funds with markets now looking more to wheat than maize. But, as with all speculative funds, it is possible that this driver could become old news and market dominating events will change again. So, we could once again see a reversal of the current upward trend.
While international markets have strengthened, prices here are much less reactive. Relatively little grain is being traded at this time of year and until there is real demand, there is little reason for internal prices to rise. This is reflected in the fact that internal prices have barely moved, while the cost of imports has risen. With maize dominating the market, forward cover taken at lower prices is being increasingly called upon to fill rations. This is becoming increasingly attractive as soyabean meal cost decreases.
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Offers for spot sales to the trade remain in the €175 to €180/t bracket for wheat and €165 to €170/t for barley. May 2015 positions remain €5/t higher and November price offers range from €185 to €190/t for wheat and €170 to €177/t for barley.
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International markets livened up early this week following news of interest rate hikes in Russia, plus a range of moves to slow or prevent grain exports. Since the announcement, MATIF December 2015 milling wheat moved from €194.50/t last Friday to €199/t at noon on Wednesday. Chicago wheat and maize took a similar rise.
The main price reaction has come in international and futures markets. The price rises have been mainly driven by funds with markets now looking more to wheat than maize. But, as with all speculative funds, it is possible that this driver could become old news and market dominating events will change again. So, we could once again see a reversal of the current upward trend.
While international markets have strengthened, prices here are much less reactive. Relatively little grain is being traded at this time of year and until there is real demand, there is little reason for internal prices to rise. This is reflected in the fact that internal prices have barely moved, while the cost of imports has risen. With maize dominating the market, forward cover taken at lower prices is being increasingly called upon to fill rations. This is becoming increasingly attractive as soyabean meal cost decreases.
Offers for spot sales to the trade remain in the €175 to €180/t bracket for wheat and €165 to €170/t for barley. May 2015 positions remain €5/t higher and November price offers range from €185 to €190/t for wheat and €170 to €177/t for barley.
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